The Neighsayers - Cheltenham Day 1

Due to Blackie & Swanny’s absence on the spaces, they’ve put together their day 1 blog! The spaces will get time stamped and a table of those selections will be posted at lunch time. Good luck all.

So the wait is finally over and the first day of the 2024 festival is finally upon us. An indifferent National Hunt season in many respects headlined by the most notable of Non Runners (see Constitution Hill), the ever changing British and Irish climate (see postponments) and dissapointing field sizes (see day 1 and 2 declarations) has resulted in the showpiece event almost sneaking up on us in many respects. However this is Cheltenham after all and when March finally arrives you can’t fail to be excited for the 4 days known as the greatest show on turf to consume our lives as the best of our equine and human stars take each other on to be crowned champions.

The lads did a brilliant job on Monday night covering the first 2 days of the festival in our twitter spaces which was again a great success so thank you to all listeners. These spaces are always recorded and time stamped for anyone who may not catch them live and I would highly recommend you revisiting these if you have time to avoid missing out on some of the gold provided from 3 brilliant judges.

In this written preview we will provide an alternative view of the opening day with the 2 of us who were unable to join the spaces looking to provide you with some winners. I have taken a deep dive into the runners in the  Supreme as a feature of the blog and provided a trio of selections the Ultima also whereas Swanny has made a cracking case for his 2 picks in the Arkle and National Hunt chase.

Hopefully you enjoy the content below and as always your continued support as well as any likes and shares are much appreciated.

@lukeblack85

1:30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) In Depth Preview.

The choice of the Mullins team to head to the longer Gallaghers Novices Hurdle with hot antepost favourite Ballyburn has resulted in the unusual nature of this years festival curtain raiser lacking the presence of a previous scorer in Grade 1 company. Despite this almost unbelievable fact, it a still an intriguing renewal of the contest in which a case could be made for the majority of the field. 

Unsuprisingly, despite the absence of what would have been his standout contender and NAP material for many people the aforementioned Ballyburn, the all conquering maestro from across the pond still heads the market with Tullyhill (100/30) and Mystical Power (100/30) leading the 6 strong Closutton charge. Although these 2 will certainly have their followers, I have never really warmed to Tullyhill and think he was massively flattered by his wide margin listed success at Navan last time out, having the complete run of the race and despite showing an improvement to his hurdling from his previous 2 starts (where he resembled more of a snooker table than a race horse) his jumping still holds massive concerns especially at this level. The same can be said for Moscow Flyer winner Mystical Power who while impressive when winning one the key trials for this race, still didn’t look what you’d call a natural hurdler and holes can definitely be picked in this form.

I find another Mullins inmate however to be the most interesting contender to be making the trip to Cheltenham from Racing’s most dominant stable. Mistergif (11/1 best) absolutely gagged up winning a maiden hurdle by 18 lengths on his debut for the yard at Limerick back in January. Vastly unexposed following only two starts in this sphere over in France before his move to Ireland, it was not the form of his maiden success that makes this victory so impressive. On paper the rivals he disposed over in such devastating fashion are world away from the tasks he faces today but his jumping was nothing short of electric, his engine to tank through the race was remorseless and the way he was merely pushed out to assert his dominance on his rivals couldn’t fail to catch the eye of even the harshest observer. With any amount of improvement possible and prices of 12/1 currently available in what is such an open renewal he is sure to be near the top of my shortlist.

Gordon Elliott’s sole representative in this years race Firefox (13/2) beat an undercooked Ballyburn at a time where the Mullins team weren’t firing on all cylinders (I know that seems hard to believe now). It was quite clearly not the same Ballyburn we’ve seen since that he beat in December but he did so comfortably and with excuses for his below par run in the Lawlors of Naas on his previous, where he emptied tamely and finished lame he could be one to bounce back and hit the frame.

Slade Steel (9/2) for Henry De Bromhead is another whos form ties in closely with Ballyburn. He was beaten 7 lengths by the Gallaghers’ hotpot at the Dublin Racing Festival back in the February however the omisson of the final hurdle will have been to his detriment and he was still able to keep on strongly on this occasion to finish 7 lengths in front of the remainder of the field himself. Campaigned mostly overly 2 and a half miles this season this run at Leopardstown behind such a well fancied individual showed that he is certainly not inconvenienced by a drop to the minimum distance and as seen in numerous editions of this contest in the past, the ability to stay as well as travel is so key to success with it often being said that a stayer wins the Supreme. A winner on heavy ground when landing a grade 2 in December, he should have absolutely no problems on today’s rain sodden surface and he looks absolutely primed to run a massive race with so many factors in his favour.

 

Attempting to keep the prize in England amidst an Irish invasion, the home challenge is headed by Jeriko Du Reponet (8/1) who represents 5 time winner of the race and the master of Seven Barrows Nicky Henderson. A massive talking horse before his debut he impressed many with two fascile victories in (albeit in modest company) at Newbury which led to him to the top of the market and as short as short 4/1 for this race in December. He subsequently headed to Doncaster to tackle Graded company for the first time in the rearranged Rossington Main at the end of the first month of 2024. On a Day in which he was supposed to cement his place at top of the market for the opening race of this year’s festival, he left a large number of the racing community including myself unimpressed despite going away to win by a length and 3/4 at the line. In stark contrast to what was expected, this performance did not only not cement his place at the top of the market for this race but resulted in a huge walk in the market, reaching as big as 7/1 by the end of play that January Saturday and 8/1 in the following days. 

Looking back on Doncaster now the slowly run nature of the race on extremely testing ground (which blunted his natural speed) when beating Lump Sum (who then took out the Grade 2 Dovecote in impressive fashion) was probably a lot better than he was first given credit for and I do think this fella has a lot of raw ability. However with his stable under a massive cloud, being without a single runner since the 2nd of March following a period of almost unheard of poor stable form subsequently headed by the well documented Constitution Hill infection saga, as well as the ground being more than likely to go further against him further before the off, he would not be for me today.

Of the rest Tellherthename (22/1) has been a massive favourite of mine this season for a stable which is quickly on the up and my belief is that he could be even better than what he has already shown us when encountering some proper Spring ground himself. Unfortunately he is not going to get this today, with the going description already soft and further downpours forecast this morning, he will likely have to wait for his literal day in the sun. These ground worries are echoed by his trainer Ben Pauling which confirmed his Christmas blowout was due to the underfoot conditions when withdrawing him from the Betfair Hurdle in the lead up the prestigious handicap and it would not be too surprising to see the same happen on this occasion should the Cheltenham turf deteriorate further.

Verdict:

In summary my money is going to rest with Irish Pair of Slade Steel and Mistergif. The former is absolutely rock solid in my opinion with no resting concerns over the ground and the combination of speed and staying ability which has seen him effective over further previously in the campaign making up the trademark of what is typically seen in the winner of a Supreme. The latter on the other hand just strikes me as a horse with the X Factor, I’m not sure I have been as visually impressed with such an unexposed horse as I was with his performance at Limerick that day. He certainly had the wow factor and the margin for improvement from that day is a scary prospect now Willie Mullins has had further time to work his magic. Firefox could the one for a speculative tricast if bouncing back from his excusable run last time out.

Selections - Slade Steel 9/2 EW + Mistergif 10/1 EW (both 4 places with Betfair).

Small Stake Exotics:

Reverse Forecast - Slade Steel / Mistergif.

Combination Tricast - Slade Steel / Mistergif / Firefox.

14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap).

As many of you who you follow me on X (Twitter) may know I have been fan of Trelawne (13/2) for this contest for a number of months of now. Showing masses of ability to defy both jumping and hanging right when finishing just 1 3/4 lengths behind the talented Colonel Harry back in January, his fencing improved dramatically to be much more straight and accurate at Exeter last time out when finishing a close up 3rd behind another 2 talented rivals. He tackles 3 miles for the first time and this greater emphasis on stamina is sure to suit having put in arguably the best performance of his career when winning over 2  Miles 7 1/2 furlongs this time last year. The booking of Harry Cobden is simply as good as it gets at the moment and everything points to a huge run. At bigger odds, Eklat De Rire (18/1) took a step back in the right direction to show glimpses of the immense promise he demonstrated earlier in his career the last day and could now go somewhat closer to gaining his first success since October 2021 now lurking off of an extremely dangerous mark of 144 whereas fellow Irish hope Minella Crooner (40/) can be both frustrating and inconsistent but certainly has it in his locker to feature off a similar mark in this contest if putting his best foot firward and can’t be left unbacked at such price.

Selections - Trelawne EW (13/2), Eklat De Rire EW (18/1), Minella Crooner EW (40/1) 6 places on Bet365.

(@swan1_oliver)

2:10 - My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

My NAP tomorrow comes in the Arkle and I can’t ignore the ew price available on Quilixios. Conditions should be perfect for the horse tomorrow. A previous winner at the festival, He won a shade cosily at Naas and can continue to improve and I think he’s been a tad overlooked here in the market. 

Selection - Quilixios EW 7/1 Hills, 6/1 General (3 places).

5:30 - Maureen Mullins National Hunt Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

In the NH Chase, I’m really keen on taking the market 2 who both have question marks attached. Embassey Gardens has disappointed previously at Cheltenham and I think jumping is key in this race and Corbett Cross has put in some questionable ones this season, does he get round? A couple of bookies I notice are going 3 places, which I think if you can find something else in this is there to be taken advantage of, with the courtesy of being best of the rest incase the opinion on these 2 at the top evidently is wrong.

However, I’m a forgiving sort and Salvador Ziggy does interest me here. Something clearly went a miss in America, and although he will have strings attached too, Gordon has a great record in this race and I think he’ll have him bang ready for this. The ground won’t be an issue and return to form shown before his American adventure should see him in the frame here, this has been the plan all along for this horse. 

Selection - Salvador Ziggy 9/1 EW (3 Places Bet365 and Sky Bet).