The Neighsayers - Floodlit Fridays Week 1
The Neighsayers - Floodlit Fridays Week 1
Evening all, starting a new weekly AW blog for Friday night racing, hopefully finding a few winners in the process. The support from you all so far has been amazing, and it gives us the motivation to keep providing informative blogs for you guys. Hopefully this new blog can become a success over the winter and find you all plenty of winners.
7:45 Dundalk – 7f Fillies Handicap
11 go to post here in what looks an open filly’s handicap on paper. Previous Eye-Catcher from her last run at Dundalk APRICOT TWIST will be the bet in here for me. She showed loads of promise at 2yo but never really hit the hights she was destined for, but has subsequently dropped to a very attractive mark, what I feel will be more than exploitable.
She was ridden cold from a very wide draw the last time she ran on the AW, and she picked up very well around 3f out, making a sweeping move into contention and stayed on very well under hands and heels into 5th. 104.75% last 3f that day, what was significantly higher than anything else in the race, and maybe with a better track position she would have got her head Infront.
She was subsequently thrown back into listed company NTO but that level of race was far too hot for her. She runs here off a mark of 81, in the weakest race she has ever contested, giving her a very nice chance in my opinion
Trip wise, she steps up to 7f for the 2nd time, and I give her every chance on her being successful at this trip on the AW. Would like to see her held up as the race has 3 obvious pace angles in here, what should play into the hands of the hold-up horses. Colin Keane jumps back on, what I feel is significant in what the yard thinks about her chances.
I feel her opening price of / is rather large, and I expect her to be supported in the market.
Selection – Apricot Twist 14/1 EW (14/1 Sky, 14/1 Hills, 12/1 Paddy Power/Betfair)
8:15 Dundalk – 6f Maiden
Very rare bet in a Maiden for me, but I feel that this race is full of dead wood and there is a potential class angle in here in the shape of RATTLETHEONIONBAGS. Made a very promising debut, coming off the pace nicely, running green but finished her race off very well. Obviously shaped as if the step up to 7f would suit but she took a massive backwards step in her next start, racing freely and not seeing her race out.
I think the drop back in trip could work the oracle with her as she is such a strong travelling filly, she will be able to move into the race on the bridle and should be able to pick plenty of these off early. Would be happy with a mid div sit, don’t really want her over-racing so hopefully Seamie can settle her nicely. I’d be massively disappointed if she isn’t in the places. The AW surface should be fine, judging by her action and she goes with standout claims in a rather weak field.
Selection – Rattletheonionbags 7/2 General (5/2 365)
6:00 Newcastle – 6f Nursery
Like to target races like this, can normally mark-up runs in Novices where horses haven’t really shown their hand fully. In the case of this race, I feel that there is a standout bet in here in the form of TORVAR, after shaping really well from an unpromising position over C&D LTO.
He showed plenty of ability on the bridle in 3 novice runs but flattered to deceive at the business end of his races, but now he is starting to look more the finished article with more racing under his belt. Has improved for the step up to 6f and I feel the hood did a great job over this trip the last day, as he travelled very sweetly and didn’t over race. Didn’t get a clear run LTO and was switched all over the track to make his effort, eventually getting room he ran on very well for 3rd shaping as if he was the best horse in the race. This race in my opinion is much weaker than the race he contested LTO, and with Daniel Tudhope taking the ride, that can only suggest he is well fancied to go close here. Will be able to pick most of these off on the bridle, just hope he can get a nicely run race to suit his hold up style of racing.
Selection – Torvar 100/30 Sky (3/1 General)
8:30 Newcastle – 6f Handicap
If you have read our AW horses to follow, this selection will not come as a shock to u. The Grant Tuer trained LEZARDRIEUX is a standout bet in this for me in this as he has dropped to a very attractive mark after an relatively unsuccessful season on turf.
Caught my eye early season over C&D, where he was narrowly denied by a very progressive horse of Geoff Oldroyd’s, that 2nd was off a mark of 66, a mark I still feel he can run to on the AW. He now finds himself off a mark of 57, a 19lb lower mark than his last AW win, making him a seriously well treated horse. I feel the small 43-day break will have put him spot on for a shot at the ARC AW bonus, an incentive program what Grant Tuer targeted last year with his well handicapped horses. His early price of 20/1 was an insult to how well handicapped this horse is, prices have been taken before I could get the blog out, but I do feel he is still worth backing. Would like him mid div/handy as there isn’t a lot of pace forecasted. I’d say he goes mightily close here.
Selection – Lezardrieux 8/1 EW (General)
Goodluck if following.
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