The Neighsayers - Champions Day 2023

The official end to the British flat season is unfortunately upon us but we couldn't see the season out without previewing 6 fascinating races. Let's get into it...

13.15 - British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

After a somewhat competitive stayers season, where we haven not seen a standout performer all year, we see a couple of the big names line up in the finale. 

Kyprios, for all his monster season in 2022, has had a year to forget after an injury setback, seen re-appearing at the curragh where he ran an encouraging return, 2nd to Eldar Eldarov in the Irish Leger. He’s currently at the top of the market with 6/5 generally available. I think this looks a tad skinny in my opinion, especially with how testing the condition look to be this weekend. I’m looking elsewhere. 

We then see the mad horse, and another fan favourite, Trueshan installed at a general 7/4 in the market. This has been some revival, from seemingly looking disinterested at Nottingham and ascot, the long break to Doncaster and then over to France for back to back wins seems to have revived the horse. I however feel this may come abit soon for him after these 2 wins, and I’m not too sure whether the stiffness of Ascot, along with what conditions we may have Saturday, will suit this horse and the price available is skinny enough. 

I’m looking to take on the top 2 in the market here, and the horse I’ve landed on is John Gosden Trained TRAWLERMAN. This horse has landed 2 very low contested affairs since blowing out in the Dubai Gold Cup. The horse didn’t break sweat in either of his wins, winning by a combined total of 31 lengths. The Gosden team will be keen to begin champions day with a bang, as they are chasing Aiden O’Brien for the trainers champ, which will all but be over after Saturdays affair. 

The horse should arrive fresh and although he has not been seen on testing conditions, he is by Golden Horn & the dam raced in France & Germany through her career, so I don’t see this an issue. The 12/1 looks good value for an each way play to get the day off to a flyer, along with Dettori on his somewhat British “Swansong”. 

Selection - Trawlerman EW (12/1 Bet365, 11/1 Betfair, William Hill)

13:50 - British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

Although I respect the chances of the favourite Kinross I thought SENSE OF DUTY was definitely overpriced. Off for 455 after bolting up in the Chipchase stakes last season, she returned at Newbury last month over the minimum trip and ran promisingly given that she’ll be much better over a stiff 6. 

The forecast is looking grim and that will be fine for her as she will go on the slop Hopefully she comes on for her return and comes back to the levels she was showing last season, if so she can definitely put it up to the market 2 and the 20/1 available is very generous in my opinion.

Selection - Sense of Duty EW 4pl (14/1 Bet 365, Betfair, Paddy Power, 12/1 William Hill)

14:25 - British Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes (Group 1)

A very uninspiring renewal here which has led me to go with a boring selection in the fav FREE WIND. Currently a general 7/2 poke I can see her going off shorter. Although she’s disappointed on occasions this year this one of the weakest fields she’s came up against. 

The Yorkshire oaks second to Warm Heart is streets clear of anything any horse in this has done, she’ll go on the ground and should be beating this lot for me I make her a decent bet at 7/2.

Selection - Free Wind 7/2 (General)

15:05 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

On to the QEII, there’s another French raider featuring in the blog in the name of BIG ROCK. I think he’s the solid each way option here with possible question marks around some of the others. First of all I think I’ll pay to be prominent in the conditions tomorrow and BIG ROCK is a proverbial front runner. Not certain to be a hot pace on, possible others would be Chaldean who’s obviously a very good horse and Hi Royal who’s run in the guineas looks to have flattered him.

Paddington obviously a solid favourite but I still think he’s a better horse on a sounder surface even though he handles soft. I think the same comments apply to Tayhira also. Nashwa interesting back to a mile after he rout in the Falmouth over this distance but I think now she is settling slightly better, she does want further.

After the above, that lands me on to BIG ROCK who’s shown his best form over the mile when 2nd to Inspiral in the Jacques Le Marois. He was also 2nd to Ace Impact over an extended 10F in the Prix Du Jockey Club on livelier ground than he’d have liked, so he has consistent group 1 form and deserves his place at the top table and I think he’ll run a belter.

Selection - Big Rock EW (7/1 William Hill, 6/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair)

15.45 - Champion Stakes (Group 1)

A not so vintage renewal of the Champion Stakes this year, but competitive non the less. It’s a very boring selection in this one for me. The French Raider HORIZON DORE has been somewhat of a win machine this season, stepping up through the ranks and we see him line up here in his first group 1. With the expected weather I only see this increasing the horses chances of winning. 

There’s a lot of question marks for the rest of the market on whether they’ll act in the surface. King of Steel has failed to land his first group 1 success since his impressive re-appearance in the derby. Bay Bridge re-appears to reclaim last years crown, but I think connections made a mistake going for the arc, if he’d of been kept fresh with this day in mind, he may have been my selection. At 9/2, I think HORIZON DORE is a solid price.

Selection - Horizon Dore (9/2 Betfair, Paddy Power, 4/1 William Hill, 7/2 Bet365)

4:25 Ascot – Balmoral Handicap 

 

Great handicap to conclude the end of the official flat season. I was sweet on Escobar in here but sadly he missed the cut by 1. My back up selection in here comes in the form of AL MUHBIR, a horse who has showed plenty all year but hasn’t yet picked up a big race. 

 

My thesis for this one is mainly ground related, as I feel he is perfectly suited by testing conditions. Hes showed a proper level of consistency in your big field handicaps and even listed races this year, making me confident that he will be at least hitting the frame. His run at Goodwood is where he first properly suggested he was up to this mark of 106, as he ran a stormer from a terrible track position. Nothing played a part from off the pace, he was the 1^st home from the closers, clocking very decent F7/F8 furlong splits on testing ground. 

 

Tom Marquand back in the saddle is a massive positive as I feel hes one of the best jockeys in the game at the moment, along with his high draw what won't be an issue, as the old saying goes, if your good enough you can win from anywhere. Looks to have been put away for this since his last run and I will be disappointed if hes not hitting the frame here.

 

Selection – Al Mubhir 10/1 EW (6places sky , 5places 365)

Thanks for all the support since our inception, it's been immense and let's hope we can end our first flat season on a high.