The Neighsayers - All-Weather Horses To Follow
With Lew and Quinny having more of an affinity with flat racing, they've decided to produce a list of horses who they fell can progress over the winter and maybe overlooked due to their turf form. We hope you enjoyed reading the other lads jumpers to follow and hopefully can resume the success of the flat horses to follow from back in March. Get your trackers ready and let's get into it...
Aljezur (Galileo Gold x Lady Mega)
Trainer - Luke Dace
High enough rated really for what we typically like to include in these sort of things, but I still think off a mark of 82 there’s plenty to work with. Particularly on the all-weather. He’s a half to Khabib who ran to an RPR of 92 on the AW, winning 4 times and placing a further 5 times from 15 starts. A 60% SR of being in the front 3 shows the ability he possesses on the artificials gives us plenty of hope that ALJEZUR can be a very good horse.
Plenty of solid form in the book to back this one up too. 2nd to Baheer on debut when was slowly away before being rushed up due to running freely. The 4th that day Cynosure looks a useful enough horse too yet to get a mark. 2nd up at Ascot was his best run no doubt. 4th to Acomb winner Indian Run (now R105), Kingdom of Riches (now R89) and the well gambled North View (now R80). It was a striking run here running on tenderly handled close home and giving the impression that 7f would be next. Hard to gage what he beat on 3rd start, coming 2nd to a well fancied Godolphin runner but finishing a whopping 6L clear of the 3rd, may well have won with a clearer passage.
The trainer does very well with select ammo but is more prominent on the all weather. With 48 runners in the last 12 months, 28 of those have been on the artificial. Specifically Kempton & Lingfield, which both courses seem to suit his held up running style so I expect to see him running well this winner and could see him picking up a decent handicap or conditions race.
Brother Dave (Pastoral Pursuits x China Cherub)
Trainer – Ruth Carr
Caught the eye on debut, showed enough ability in glimpses to suggest he could be useful enough at a moderate level. Was then ran on turf what didn’t look his bag, and then not knocked about on his 3rd start. Been off since May but made a more than encouraging handicap debut, running on late without trying to get too close to the winner. I can imagine he will come on loads for the outing and will be cherry ripe for a potential winning sequence.
A half to stable mate Bobby Joe Leg, a very similar type on paper who was very successful when landing the AW bonus prize for October-November last year. I can imagine this has been the aim all year for BROTEHR DAVE. Ruth Carr training for her mother only adds to the importance of BROTHER DAVE landing the prize this year. 6-7f will be his trip range in my opinion leaving his options wide open. The Northern AW circuit should expect to see this one week in week out. He will be much better than a mark of 52.
Dibbsy’s Dream (Soldiers call x Mistress Mafki
Trainer - Amy Murphy
3 quick runs for a mark and then put away since mid June screams handicap project to me. Hopefully she’ll return over the winter, that’s the only qualm I have with this one.
Limited appeal from the dam’s progeny (only one other to hit the track) but there is an AW winner in the family, which was the sole win. Very quiet debut Haydock in one of the new Juddmonte series races but then two more encouraging runs next up. Only five really featured in the race at Chepstow where she was a staying on 3rd having been outpaced. The 4th and 5th that day are now rated mid 80’s and the the two that finished in front of her are rated around 70. The 3rd run at York caught my eye the most, a complete and utter float up, I’d encourage you to watch that run back, she’s detached at the 2 pole and still last at the furlong pole, the jock used the whip 3 times within half a furlong and then hands and heels close home when she looked to be closing. This wasn’t the greatest novice by any stretch, but turning up here just 6 days after chepstow suggested she was here for the run.
Although it’s clearly been a quiet year for Murphy, she’s endured enough success on the all weather within the last 12 months to suggest this can improve for the switch to the sand.
Kemerton (Kodi Bear x Moyhsha Lady)
Trainer – Ian Williams
Not pulled up any trees as of yet and is currently 0-8, but did hint promise in his sole start on the AW, where he ran on very well for 4th in a 1m Novice. Ran in and around 80+ rated horses here and was always looking like he would benefit from a step up in trip. Hes stepped up in trip but has never really looked in love with turf. His run LTO at Pontefract was a step in the right direction, not really handling the undulations and not being beaten far. I think he would be worth another chance on the AW, maybe a return to Kempton.
On pedigree he shouldn’t be getting the 1m4 trip but I feel he gets It fine enough and could potentially step up in trip if needs be. Has a range of entries for next week, over varying trips so it will be interesting to see where he goes. Jockey booking will be important for this one. I think hes better than hes shown recently.
Lezardrieux (Due Dilligance x M’selle)
Trainer – Grant Tuer
Getting on now the 6yo but has shown enough early season to suggest he still retains his ability. Nice run first up this year on the AW, was beaten by a progressive type but ran very well. Won at Catterick in May but has lacked some zest in his runs since. I can’t say he has been stopped maybe with the AW in mind but maybe he has been lacking fitness on his recent runs in preparation for a shot at the Arc AW bonus. Hes now 8lb below his last AW placed effort and 19lb below his last AW winning mark, making his current mark of 57 look very workable to me.
Trainer Grant Tuer showed last year he is brilliant at prepping horses for the AW bonus, and he looks to have a similar project with LEZARDRIEUX in my opinion. Hes a C&D winner at Newcastle and Wolverhampton giving him plenty of race options throughout the winter. Will win a few this year.
Matloob (Dark Angel x Shang Shang Shang)
Trainer – Roger Varian
Pulled up no trees on first 2 starts on turf but showed stones of improvement once switched to a synthetic surface, winning his race in effortless style. Clocked very good final 3f sectionals, what under hands and heels can be perceived as even more impressive than they already are. The Eye test was passed that day, but his +3.52 % over the finishing percentage under tender handling was very impressive in my book. He has ran twice since but both times on the turf, where he wasn’t disgraced but didn’t show the same level of ability as he did on the AW. He has plenty of speed and will be running over 5-6f on all your AW tracks. Currently has a mark of 78 what is more than workable once he tackles a synthetic surface again. I’d have him down as a 90+ horse with the correct placing.
Tees Douge (Dream Ahead x Hulcote Rose)
Trainer – Adrian Nichols
Well enough thought of type to be tried In the Brocklesby, showed speed and a nice cruising speed to get into the race but flattered to deceive on very testing ground. We flagged it up pre-Brocklesby on our spaces call that he would be one for the AW, and he ran as expected on AW debut, finishing 2nd to a 80+ horse. Shocked to see he hasn’t touched the AW since this career best, but he hasn’t been disgracing himself on the turf with decent enough placed efforts on multiple occasions.
Comes from a very decent AW family, with the dam being very competent on the AW, along with the majority of her progeny being out and out AW sprinters.
He has dropped now to a mark of 62, what I feel will be more than exploitable over 5-6f. I’d say he should be pushing high 70s before the end of the AW season.
Super Schwartz (Kodiac x Sagittarian Wind)
Trainer - Richard Hughes
It absolutely pained me that this won before it was time to get this put out, however with just a 6lb rise to put him on 57, I think this could be a mid 70’s horse leaving us with plenty to work with.
Was drawn to him in his 3rd start at Ffos Las, showed plenty of pace in what I think is a very very good maiden before just beaten by better rivals. He then showed a liking to the all weather when 3rd at Chelmsford over a shorter than ideal trip but did well to get that close at a track where you need to be prominent.
He broke his maiden at that same course but upped to 6 furlongs and won resoundingly, but left me with the impression he could improve again for 7 furlongs, particularly on a different all weather surface, but it’s handy to know he goes well at Chelmsford at least.
Richard Hughes loves the all weather, within the last 12 months, his winning most courses in order are;
1.Kempton
2.Wolves
3.Newmarket
4.Chelmsford
5.Lingfield
So he clearly has an affinity with the all weather and I expect this horse to follow that trend and be winning multiple times this winter.
This lad does have an entry at Kempton on Wednesday…
Forgotten Treasure (Ten Sovereigns x I Remember You)
Trainer - William Knight
Showed bits and pieces that suggests this has more ability than a rating of 54 suggests. Pulled hard on a couple of starts in maiden’s which led to the hood being applied, which didn’t work first up, but seemed to do the trick 2nd time used on nursery debut at Chelmsford over the weekend. Settled well enough in rear but was given an impossible task to challenge, she did well to get 5th, finishing up the rail which is often NOT the place to be also.
First progeny of the dam so hard to judge what she’s likely to produce, but she herself is by Australia and ran over 7 furlongs so Forgotten Treasure can only benefit from a step back up to at least 6 furlongs, she may just find the front.
William Knight hasn't had the greatest of 12 months, but from just 10 winners he's managed to win at all of the all-weather tracks, bar Southwell giving every hope that his yard form could be overhauled this winter.
Unleash Hell (Postponed x Serabrina)
Trainer: Tom Dascombe
2nd runner out of an Ifraaj mare, this time by Postponed so should posses plenty of stamina and gelding operation seem to work the oracle on him mid season and improved his form markedly and has continued to improve since then.
First try at 12 furlongs last time saw his best run to date, coming off the pace at Chelmsford which as I’ve mentioned with a few runners isn’t what you want to be doing. The front two home that day were rated mid 60’s, so they’ll be high 60’s and if they raced again around somewhere like wolves or Southwell I’d fancy him to overturn that form.
Hopefully when the new year turns, they can find some nice 14f handicaps in open company where he may be in receipt of some weight too.
I’d be interested in backing this lad over 10 furlongs or further and I think he can improve 10lbs on his current rating.
Thanks for reading and all your continued support as always, we hope we can make a few quid on these over the winter and you can join us too.
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