The Neighsayers - Two for Tuesday
Two For Tuesday
2:25 Lingfield – 5f Nursery
Open nursery on paper but there Is a horse in here whose track performance impressed more than she did in the paddock. BOANN put her rivals to the sword on her 3rd start of her career at Southwell, what was a very good performance as she was miles better than anything in that race, what on paper looked decent enough. She looked to improve for the synthetic surface and the aid of the toungestrap, giving me hope she can back up here under similar conditions.
As mentioned earlier, she didn’t impress me in the paddock, mentally she looked to have slightly lost her head in the prelims, sweated up, veins popping out, and on her toes early. This didn’t affect her performance though, what is a good thing, and she may just be a buzzy type who just wants to get on the track and run. She has been allocated a mark of 78, what I feel is more than workable in a race of this nature. She showed plenty of speed on all starts, and I feel a few of these will be wanting further already, lacking tactical speed whereas BOANN is all speed and will thrive in the conditions. I feel this track will suit her better with a bend to run around, allowing her to sit just off the leaders and pounce when she pleases. I’d say in time she will be a 90+ Filly, and she has a great chance here to notch up her 2nd win.
Selection – Boann (6/1 365, 6/1 Paddy power/ Betfair)
6:00 Newcastle – 1m2f Handicap
Low grade stuff but this will be the bread and butter throughout the winter for myself and Lewis. My eyes lit up when I saw this horse was declared, as I have been waiting for a return back to the AW for a long enough time. The Kubler trained LOWICK will be a MAX bet here for me on her Tapeta debut. Has raced once on the synthetics and was very well backed to no avail, having excuses in my book of the filly not staying the 1m4f, and the bit slipping out the horse’s mouth forcing her to drift left-handed, wasn’t knocked about.
Has been applying her trade on the turf, tackling varying different ground types but not really looking at home on any ground. Showed enough on the bridle (traded 50% shorter than BSP in 5/6 races) but didn’t want to know when asked to pick up, in my opinion crying out for a synthetic surface. Her sire has a +24% better strike rate with his progeny on the AW, along with the early generation of the dam side of the page pointing towards Dirt winners.
The Kubler’s and their data driven approach to training won’t have missed the previously mentioned progeny statistics, so the rather belated return to the AW can only suggest this has been a plan brewing for long enough. The Kubler’s don’t tend to waste a trip to the Toon, operating at 20.08% win / 39.6% place, 1.59 A/E winners and a £1 Lv stakes profit of +54.84 at the track. Very impressive figures for the Lambourn based yard, could their sole runner on the card add to them?
2% Tom booked for the ride, who can now be referred to as 20% Tom, as that is the strike rate at what he operates at when riding for the Kubler’s, 2 wins from 10 rides what is more than good for a jockey of his elk. This horse is very talented on her day, and she is arguably contesting her worst race to date here. I doubt the yard thought she would be running off a mark of 60 this time last year and she should have a serious class edge here over rather exposed types. She gets the 3yo allowance here, a very favourable weight advantage around this time of year as the 3yos have more than likely caught up to their elders mentally/Physically. Stats are supporting this horse heavily, what leads to a MAX bet for me at the current prices, and I will be taking prices as I can imagine she will be very well supported……
Selection – Lowick EW (10/1 365 4pl, 11/1 Paddy Power 3pl, 11/1 Betfair 4pl)
Good Luck if following! Keep punting.
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