The Neighsayers - Thursday at Donny
1:15 Doncaster – 6f Apprentice Handicap 3yo+
Nice field to kick off the St Leger festival, and there is one in here what I do like to bounce back to form. JUMP THE GUN found himself between a rock and a hard place from the start of the season, after improving 15+ for the aid of the cheekpieces. Throughout the year he hasn’t shown his usual zest on the bridle and looked slightly sick of the game in spells. But it does spring to my attention that he has the aid of the first-time blinkers, what if having the effect like the cheekpieces last year, he could bounce back to form in a big way.
Even though I feel he is better on quick turf, The soft ground isn’t a problem and he will go on it perfectly fine. The shrewd Jardine has managed to drop him 9lb in his last 2 runs, what were complete float ups, getting him in here off a more than workable mark. Jardine has rushed for the services of young William Pyle, a jockey who has impressed me and clearly his trainer this year. The 5lb claim from this lad in a race of this nature is very important as I feel he is very tidy for his claim. Pyle operates at 35% Strike rate for Jardine (+£17.00 to £1Lv), suggesting Jardine trusts the young pilot with well fancied rides. Is this another one? Has seen support overnight but is much bigger on the exchange, so I would advise taking BOG In the morning if possible.
Selection - Jump The Gun EW (12/1 365, William Hill, 11/1 General)
1:50 Doncaster – 6 ½f Nursery 2yo
*Taken from Antepost Blog so prices are not accurate
Valuable Nursery on the first day of the St Leger festival, obviously attracts a nice enough field with the 25k looking rather appealing for connections. Plenty of inform filly’s in here but many have multiple entry’s, potentially leading to some of the market principles going elsewhere. The one for me in here now is the George Margeson trained JUMEIRAH BREEZE, after she went into many people’s notebooks after a fast-finishing 2nd behind the progressive Seven Questions.
She has shown quiet a lot of ability on most of her starts, her debut was a nice education for her over the C&D she will be running over on Thursday. Then she was much improved on her 2nd start where she was only beaten by a Godolphin hotpot, who ran well in G3 event NTO. Bare result of 3rd start looks disappointing, but that race is working out very well, with the winner now being a G3 winner, the 3rd was placed in the G1 Moyglare stakes on the weekend, 4th 8th and 9th all winning races since giving this novice great substance on form alone.
Her handicap/Nursery debut was promising also, traveling fresh enough, finishing her race off with promising back-end sectional. She gets an extra half a furlong to work with here and I feel that may be the difference between her running well and winning. She is currently priced up with 365 at 20/1, an pure insulting prize for a Filly who hold standout novice form. She looks progressive in my eyes, and I can only see her going close here.
Selection – Jumeirah Breeze EW 4pl (15/2 Bet365, William Hill)
2:25 - 6 ½f Stakes Race 2yo
I have absolutely 0 qualms that both Johannes Brahmes and Dragon leader should be the market leaders here however I’m going to look for an each way angle in this race and think I’ve found just that. ROOM SERVICE was a staying on 3rd at York in the nursery there and that was about the best he could’ve hoped for given the winner was away and gone the minute the stalls opened. The 2nd from the race came from a similar track position to ROOM SERVICE and won a group 3 on the all weather next time out. So they gives a nod of confidence to the selection and he can outrun his odds.
He wasn’t any closer to the winner than he was at the line, so the extra half a furlong should be right up his street here and soft ground shouldn’t be a problem, Kodi bear’s are generally okay on the ground but I think the trip is crucial here.
Selection - Room Service EW 4pl (14/1 Betfair, Paddy, Coral, 12/1 Bet365, William Hill)
3:00 - 1m Group 2 2yo
Will aim to keep this one as short as possible, but DARNATION is the one to beat here and I think she’ll be hard to beat at that. Looked to be crying out for a mile at Goodwood last time having looked hopeless 3 out but the stamina and class kicked in and she picked them up late on. There’s a possibility she was flattered in the race with Carla’s Way paying for her early exertions and tiring close home.
The key here though is the trip as already mentioned and she will love the conditions.
Selection - Darnation (11/8 General)
3:35 - 1m 6f Group 2 3yo+
I can’t knock the each way chances of GOLDEN LYRA here. Her 4th over in France last time out was a much needed return to form and it’s not luck that it coincided with a step back up in trip, and she gets even further here, which is no detriment to her.
Although there’s only been on runner subsequently from her 2nd in France, it couldn’t have been better advertised with the winner going on to finish second to Warm Heart in the group 1 Prix Vermeille.
Even before that run, she showed she’d blew away the cobwebs from her Nottingham reappearance by running a 6th at York when never nearer, which bolsters claims that she will relish this extra distance.
This is a pretty bang average renewal of this race with Gosden’s obviously dangerous given his record in the race, but Haggas’ other runner may be worth backing in running if ridden with more restraint but the selection is firmly GOLDEN LYRA.
Selection - Golden Lyra EW (11/2 4pl William Hill, 3pl 5/1 General)
16:10 - 1m 2f Handicap 3yo
Just think this is very generous pricing from the bookies. I can make negatives for a few of these, Kingfisher King doesn’t look obviously well handicapped on his opening mark, Sisyphus Strength has to have ground concerns for me, possible non runner? Iron Lion probably not up this level, Wildfell poorly campaigned. However, IF NOT NOW has obvious claims and I think the 7/2 stand out is a very good price.
5th in the German derby. Travelled lovely that day and actually hit the front for a brief point with 2 furlongs to go, but unfortunately just didn’t stay so the drop back to 10 furlongs is the obvious move. Hard to judge the German form however a bit of substance was added at the weekend when the winner won a group 2 in France, beating Arc hopeful Feed The Flame.
He should have no issues with conditions here and I make him the one to beat. Obelix is interesting in first time head gear for the Gosden’s and would be the danger.
Selection - If Not Now (7/2 Bet365, William Hill, 3/1 General)
4:45 - 1m 4f Handicap 3yo+
A very timely form boost tonight for EL JASOR .He got into a battle with Valsad at Newbury last time who won in the racing league tonight. He came out victorious in that battle but he made it harder than it should’ve been by lugging left but that’s why I think the first time cheek pieces should keep him straighter here. They pulled a long way clear that day of the 3rd and look to be 2 well handicapped horses.
I can’t really see what the Jardine thing has done to deserve a rating of 86 so I’d be against him. City Streak has a good record on ground with any soft in the description but is he just too high in the weights now? I think so. Vaguely Royal is interesting having been a non stayer in the melrose but slight ground question marks which makes EL JASOR a strong fancy in this.
Selection - El Jasor (9/2 Bet365, 4/1 Betfair, Paddy, 7/2 William Hill)
5:20 - 7f Nursery 2yo
Calyx seems to be the first season sire for slop lovers and NELLIE LAYLAX epitomises that. She’s unbeaten on soft/heavy ground including over this C&D.
It’s a shame the Johnston runner is in here as we could’ve been looking at a complete free ride on the front end but I think in these conditions we still hold the advantage. When winning at Haydock, his rivals come over the top of him and looked to be struggling before gamely getting his toe in under the conditions and winning snugly. I think we’ll see a repeat of that with the ground likely to be churned up by the end of the day.
Eyes on double jump for the future. Handicap debut here after a promising 2nd start behind Iberian. Has soft ground horses in the family and could be let in lightly off 74 but will most likely be one back in a reasonable grade.
Selection - Nellie Laylax (9/4 General, 2/1 Bet365)
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