The Neighsayers - Saturday 9th September 2023
What a Saturday we have in store this weekend, some quality racing to prepare us for the final Classic of the season at Doncaster next week, where we'll have plenty of content through the week, as it's the big one at our local. Until then, we've come up with some bets we like a lot this weekend and hopefully follow on from last night's success' at Wolves. Let's get into it.
4:20 Ascot - 1m Handicap
If there's one thing the Gosden's can do, it's bring a filly on by giving them time, I think this horse is in the process of becoming a better horse than a handicapper. BRIDESTONES owned by Godolphin has improved with every run this year and I think here is the perfect opportunity to first her maiden 3yo victory.
Having gone in search for black type, which was successful when finishing 3rd in a listed fillies race at Sandown and then falling just short when 4th last time, in what was arguably a better run having been unlucky throughout the race, it's no surprise they step back into handicap company in search of a winning opportunity.
For those close effort's in listed company, she's been unchanged by the handicapper which I think is lenient. I can understand the Sandown effort as the winner was R78, so hard to judge the form. However at Haydock last time, she was sandwiched between horses rated 102,102 and 105. That's where I find the mark exploitable.
There isn't an abundance of pace on here but she'll be prominent enough to be positioned well if it does turn into a sprint off steady fractions and with the mark looking exploitable, I make here a very good bet here.
Selection - Bridestones (5/1 bet365, 4/1 WH, 3/1 General)
4:25 Thirsk - 6f Handicap
A rather speculative selection here, but I think will have the perfect race set up to see him run well here and out run his odds massively. GHATHANFAR is an out and out front runner and should get his own way in front here. He faces 6 in opposition here and I can the case that 5 of them are hold up horses wanting to come off a pace collapse. The only one who may challenge for the lead is Brazen Bolt, but that's no certainty.
The selection has to reoppose with Zaman Jemil here, however the last day we got 4lb from Zaman Jemil, here we get 12lb + William Pyle claims 5lb, so a total 17lb swing in the weights. GHATHANFAR will feel like he's running free on the front end of essentially bottom weight of 8 stone 2.
His last victory was in first time cheekpieces off a mark of 83, and they return here too having tinkered with his headgear a few times since then.
Selection - Ghathanfar (12/1 General)
5:40 Leopardstown – 7 ½f Handicap
Really competitive stuff here as always for your big premier handicaps. Plenty of the market being taken up by the O’Brian fav and it would be rude not to take him on with a nice EW fancy. CURRENT OPTION was back at his beloved Galway where he caught the eye, travelling well in rear when getting bumped around the bend, was never in a challenging position to go and win his 3rd Galway festival race in his career.
Caught the eye again LTO over a mile where he couldn’t get a run on the rails, then wasn’t knocked about finishing down the field. He has shown that he still retains all ability this year with very good performances over trips what may have stretch him, with his finishing positions of his runs not reflecting the quality of his performances.
The handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 92, a mark what is more than exploitable based on some of his performances this year/back end of last year. He has a great record in this race, winning it in 2019 and placing in the race last year off an 11lb higher mark (including jockey claim). At the 7f - 7 ½f trip, he seems to be at his optimum I feel, as most of his wins and good runs have been at the trip. 1 win 1 place from 3 runs over the C&D, providing the race set up is right he could outrun his massive 28/1 price. He wins a big one every year and Hes yet to win this campaign, is today the day? Too well handicapped to ignore. Solid EW bet providing the draw doesn’t ruin his chances.
Selection – Current Option EW 5pl (22/1 Betfair/Paddy Power, 20/1 General)
5:45 Kempton - 1m Handicap
Weak contest here, with 4 horses running out of the handicap, providing a great EW edge into the race. 3yo obviously get the 5lb allowance, what at this time of year can be very favourable for the younger horses. But I think there is a standout bet in this in the form of the Adrian Wintle trained ESPRESSO FREDDO, a 2-time C&D winner who loves popping up at Kempton. The old boy hasn’t run at his favoured C&D since his 3rd off a mark of 72 for his previous trainer. He has now plummeted down the weights running on turf and at tracks what I feel didn’t suit him, finding his way to a career low mark of 57. He is now 11lb lower than his last C&D win and he drops into a Class 6 at Kempton for the first time. He should have way more class than many of these, especially those who look stuck between a rock and a hard place with their marks.
Slight negative is that he may be at risk to potential pace bias, with not much pace forecasted. In contrast, this may force the hand of other not so frequent front runners to go forward, potentially putting them out their comfort zones making them keen. Another small problem is the 3yo do get a nice weigh advantage with ESSPRESSO FREDDO, but I would be very shocked to see any of them be better handicapped than our bet here. He is a standout EW bet here at the current odds; I would be confident of a very good showing from the old boy.
Selection – Espresso Freddo ew 3pl (7/1 General, 13/2 Sky Bet 4pl)
7:30 Wolverhampton - 5f 21y
Dunstall Park on a Saturday night, this is what dreams are made of. Let's hope this is worth both our time and money as we look to round out the weekend with success. NELSON GAY has a fairly good record in class 5 company, including his previous win 2 starts back, winning a better race on a track that wouldn't have suited him as much as tight tracks do.
He won at Newcastle of a mark of 75 and turns out here off just 76. He likes to come off a strong pace which looks certain to be on here with Betweenthesticks, Bang On The Bell, Cinque Verde and Murbih in this race they should go quick up front which should set it up for the closers here, which the selection definitely is. In this grade he should just have too much for these and I'd be confident of a victory to cap off the night.
Selection - Nelson Gay (5/1 Bet365, 3/1 General)
Comments
Post a Comment