The Neighsayers - Racing League Week 6
The racing league train rolls into Southwell for the 6th and final week of this year's series and what a series it's been for us. We've turned a profit in each of the 5 weeks so far and hoping to make it a clean sweep here and put some money in the pocket's for the Leger meeting.
5:45 - 7f 14y Nursery
I think that London and The South hold the card's here with can definitely see why Crimson Spirit has been put in as favourite but it's their other runner, COMMANDER CROUCH who takes the eye. He had no chance of winning at Haydock last time out conceding first run to a very well handicapped horse due to traffic problems but the way come over the rest of the field to finish 2nd left the impression on me that a mark of 75 might have a bit of mileage in it yet.
He's a fairly consistent horse too and even when down the field I feel like he's had excuses, at Chester he was bumped early and lost his position and the 7th at Windsor would put him close here. I make him a solid each way bet here, he's an inside draw to take a nice position into the bend and there should be a decent paid for him to aim at.
Selection - Commander Crouch EW 4pl (15/2 Bet365, 7/1 William Hill and 13/2 General)
6:15 - 7f 14y Handicap
This is quite a weak race and I can pick holes in a few particularly at the top of the market, so working the way down, I landed on STREAK LIGHTNING. I think this horse is the better form than the bare form figures suggest, particularly as in his last 8 races, he's never ran over the same distance in consecutive races but back up to his trip of 7 furlongs here should see him run his race.
His 4th in the Racing League at Newcastle recently was his best run for a while however, beaten less than 2L when he had to wait and wait for room and when it opened he picked up nicely but wasn't given much encouragement by Jimmy Sullivan. I counted one possible go of the whip, but even that was only a flick and ran on to finish 4th under hands and heels after that point. The handicapper has dropped it 2lbs for that run which is very lenient in my eyes.
Interestingly enough, the Yorkshire team run Russco who's a front runner who should set a solid pace along with Aphelios and G'daay. I can't see this one being out the first 4 with how the race should be run and on the basis of the Newcastle run, this should be a very good each way bet.
Selection - Streak Lightning EW 4pl (14/1 William Hill, 10/1 General)
6:45 - 1m 13y Handicap
A horse who's still improving, especially on the all-weather is BALTIMORE BAY. He's only once been out the places on the all-weather and that was in the Racing League last year and even then, he was send off 100/30 Fav, so expectations must've surrounded him.
This might look the obvious selection based on form and it probably is. He won a London Mile Series Qualifier late August fairly cosily in the end, when it looked as if he had a troubled passage having had to have to pull off heels before the bend and then once into the straight he had to wait for a runner to pass him before switching out. He was raised 2lb for that which I thought was terribly lenient just because of the nature of the race, never mind how he won.
The final of the London Mile Series was the weekend just passed, so it is a quick turn around however he finished 3rd in that losing out to better handicapped horses but he himself has been raised in the weights (check how much before posting) this morning so he is now well handicapped himself here and if he copes with the quick turnaround he should be there at the finish.
Selection - Baltimore Bay EW 4pl (13/2 William Hill, 11/2 Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes)
7:15 – 6F Handicap
Wales & The West yet to play jokers in this year’s racing league, tactically saving them for the final meeting where they can rally late and pick up back-to-back racing league titles. The Jamie Osbourne trained HIERARCHY looks an obvious plot for the Racing League after plummeting down the weights since joining the Lambourn set up.
From running in Group races at 2yo to plummeting down the weights from the 100s to a mark of 82, its more than obvious HIERARCHY has a very high level of ability what I believe he retains a lot of. He has gone off massive prices in all his runs in the UK for Jamie Osbourn, probably suggesting another day is in mind. His recent runs haven’t been devoid of promise, after missing the break on several occasions, did show much more last time out over a sharp 5 in the reapplied headgear. Stayed on late after missing the break badly, crying out for a step back up to 6f, what he gets today.
Interestingly hasn’t ran on the AW since his early 3yo days, and a return to this surface could spark a resurgence of improved form. 3rd in the 2yo G3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton to go with his debut win, provided good enough reading for a return to the AW. Drawn in 10 what isn’t ideal, but he will be dropped in anyway, so it won’t really matter. Pace in 12, 4 ,6 & 7 meaning it could set up nicely for a closer like HIERARCHY.
Providing he doesn’t blow the start; I’d be very confident of a nice bounce back to form here from a very well handicapped horse.
Selection – Hierarchy EW 4pl (9/1 General)
7:45 – 2m ½F Handicap
Decent enough staying handicap here, and I feel like I’ve found a good bet at the prices. I’m more than happy to chance the old boy SIR CHAUVELIN at his current price of 20/1, after showing enough in 2 of his starts this year that he retains the ability he once showed as a younger horse.
Caught my eye in the Northumberland Plate, where he came from an impossible position in rear, made a massive move 3-1f out, clocking 11.80 3f-2f split (0.32s quicker than everything in the race), along with a 12.37 2-1f split (0.27s quicker than everything in the race). These sectionals alone suggest hes still in fine fettle at the spritely age of 11 and providing he can have a race run to suit back he should be going close again.
He also caught the eye at Hamilton behind the very talented Ibrahimovic, where he looked slightly tapped for tow, started to stay on but getting stopped in the run multiple times halted his momentum, wasn’t knocked about after.
He is now 7lb below his last winning mark, and I find it very interesting that Paul Mulrennan takes the ride after not being on him since October 2022. Versatile trip wise so the 2m at Southwell won’t hold and queries. Strong pace forecasted here will be crucial to his chances, with pace coming from box 11,6,3,4,2,5 and 10 this will be huge for a hold up performer like SIR CHAUVELIN, and I think the race will work out perfectly for the old boy. 20s is more than fair but wouldn’t be a shock if we got bigger close to the off.
Selection – Sir Chauvelin EW 4pl(25/1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 20/1 General)
Very competitive event here, narrowed it down to Show Me Show Me, Thunder Moor and Sporting Hero, with the latter SPORTING HERO being the bet in here for me. Clearly much better horse on the AW, showed plenty of good form on the AW, showing a nice cruising speed and decent turn of foot in the process.
He ran twice on the turf in the back end of last season and was disappointing, but I can put that down to the surface. Has been gelded in the interim what could bring on more improvement. Plenty of pace on here, providing a good enough race set up for SPORTING HERO, as he should be held up looking to pass horses. Very competitive stuff here but he would be the bet, albeit a small one.
Selection – Sporting Hero EW 4pl (12/1 General, 8/1 Bet365)
8:45 -1m4f Handicap
Competitive conclusion to the 2023 Racing League, and I feel that Team Yorkshire may the final winner in the form of ONESMOOTHOPERATOR. Hes a horse who has been knocking on the door for a while now, especially LTO where he finished 2nd over an inadequate 10f. He returns to a course he is 1 win and 1 place from 2 runs at, he steps back up in trip to 12f what I think will be ideal for him on the AW.
He is tactically versatile, so he could easily sit mid div and be ridden to best effect. He has all variables in his favour here and he should be going close for Brian Ellison and Team Yorkshire.
Selection – Onesmoothoperator EW 4pl (7/1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 13/2 General, 11/2 William Hill)
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