The Neighsayers - Racing League Week 5

Racing League - Wolverhampton 

Last week's racing league blog was a resounding success, with 2 good priced winner and very decent 16/1 2nd place in Badri, we're hoping for much of the same this week but the competitive nature means it can be a struggle. We're happy with the selections we have landed on and looking forward to seeing how they run, now let's get into it.

Race 1 - 7f Nursery

Not an abundance of pace on show here, with only Suicide Blonde and SUCCESSION certain to be prominent, others can be up for debate. The selection SUCCESSION looks to be all speed in his runs so far and apart from failing to give away weight on fast ground last time, has some pretty handy form to win a race like this, particularly on debut running close with Dapper Valley and Matters Most who are both around the rated 90 mark.

He's drawn 8 but his front running tactics should see him sit front rank on the outside of Suicide Blonde who's drawn 4 and use the bends of wolves to kick clear off of. Will be betting this each way just due to the nature of the race. If the pace does collapse due to other front runners showing, Pressure's On will play a part in the finish, but I don't think that'll be the case.

Selection - Succession EW 4pl (14/1 Bet365, 12/1 General)

 

Race 2 – 6f Handicap 

 

6F round Wolverhampton wouldn’t be something I’d be looking forward to, but I feel there could be a nice bet in here in the form of MINNETONKA, after showing more than enough LTO to suggest she’s starting to look nicely handicapped. 

 

Campaigned as a Group performer at 2yo after her very impressive debut, an aggressive program what didn’t really work out for her, running well in good races but never getting her head Infront. Having ran in 3 handicaps this year, I could have given her 2 valid hinderances on her chances. Ground and track position ruined her chances at Goodwood, and the 7f trip didn’t suit her at Kempton the last day. She drops back to 6f here what I think will be the making of her, as she will be able to use her high cruising speed to better effect. She has now dropped to a mark of 80, a mark I would have been very shocked to see her racing off this time last year. Mr Levey will have a better understanding of the filly and I feel he might be able to get the best out of her tomorrow. 9/1 EW I feel is a generous price what should be taken. 

 

Selection – Minnetonka EW 4pl (9/1 365, 8/1 General)

 

Race 3 – 1m ½f handicap

 

Decent enough 3yo event here, with plenty showing up here in nice form looking ready to win races. On the other hand, my selection comes here in poor enough form but I expect a much better showing here on Thursday. 

 

NOODLE MISSION has looked lost on the turf, racing too keenly and not really enjoying the surface. 2 facile wins over this C&D last year, where we looked very nicely handicapped is what will be the key piece of form what could give him a nice chance on his return back to the AW. Hes a very strong travelling type who loves passing horses, a style what looked to best effect over this C&D for him. Obviously, the pace of the race will determine his chances here as he will need them to go quick Infront, and on paper it doesn’t look like much pace will be forecast, but I feel that this won’t be the case with Old Smoke, Moonspirit, Superspecialawsome and Lunarscape all looking to be ridden handy, potentially pushing the pace too hard suiting NOODLE MISSION.

 

I would be shocked if we didn’t see a much better performance back on the AW, providing the Young Jockey can settle him well enough in the rear.

 

Selection – Noodle Mission EW 3pl (11/1 365, 8/1 General)

 

Race 4- 1m ½f handicap

 

Another race over the extended mile, this time for the older horses. This race looks very competitive with plenty of these lurking on dangerous marks, along with many coming here in savage order, looking to keep up the current good form. I do feel there is a very good bet here at his current price of 6/1, UNITED FRONT returns back to his favoured surface for a nice mid-season AW pot. Has shown great form on the turf this year, landing a gamble at Beverley in the process. But it has been eagerly awaited from the lads for him to be seen back on the AW, as we think he is a much better horse on a synthetic surface.

 

Runs here off 93, a 2lb lower mark than his last AW win, along with a 11lb lower mark than his arguable career best performance in the 2022 Lincoln Trial over C&D, where he finished 3^rd running a very good race off a big weight. That form alone would have him ontop here if returning to his AW form, what is highly possible after showing he still maintains the aptitude to racing after his stint on the dirt last winter. Hails from a shrewd yard who could have had this meeting in mind for UNITED FRONT, as he returns to a track and trip what I feel will play to his strengths.

 

Id have him going off much shorter than his current price and prices should be taken.

 

Selection – United Front (6/1 365, 11/2 General)

Race 5 - 1m 1 ½f handicap

If this race goes to anyone but one of the two 3yo's, I'll be completely shocked. Have secret brings in a handy level of form into this but the selection is NAXOS, who's back on an artificial surface where he's 2/3 including a win on tapeta at Newcastle on debut. He was out of his depth in the Britannia at Royal Ascot but returned to form last time, dropped into this grade again. He was a staying on 2nd over the mile at Newmarket but left the impression 10 furlongs would be his bag, which he gets here. It's an easy 10 furlongs round wolves too and he's drawn inside so he shouldn't be posted wide for the whole trip.

He's raced prominently previously and it could pay to do so again here with little other pace forecasted, maybe Marie's Diamond who's drawn on his outside but with the 3yo allowance which is 6lb, I make NAXOS very hard to beat here. He'd be my NAP of the card.

Selection - Naxos (9/2 General)

Race 6 - 1m 5f 219y handicap

This is not the strongest of races by any stretch of the imagination but I think London and The South's runner, DIAMOND BAY provides a bit of each way value having shown a return to form on turf last time out, when I think he's much more of an AW horse. Having found trouble when turning for home, he had to switch more than once up the straight no doubt costing him ground but stuck on all the way home.

He's a course winner over a shorter distance but has won over further too on the AW so there's no doubt about the trip or surface. He does have some work to do to turn the form round with Dark Island but meets here on 3lb better terms and on a favourable surface.

He'd prefer a strong pace to run at and should get that with pace likely to come from Dark Island, Achnamara and Percy Jones enabling us to travel strongly and be played late.

Selection - Diamond Bay EW 4pl (11/1 Bet365, 10/1 Coral, William Hill)

Race 7 - 6f 20y handicap

This is a horse I'm very excited about on his comeback after a 17 month absence, but I've no doubt about his fitness, or he wouldn't even be entered up here, with Ireland going for the leading team. SPACE COWBOY has some pretty good form in the book, particularly from his two runs at Newcastle, but he is also a C&D winner beating a listed winner in the process. His best bits of form do come from Newcastle where he was 3rd in the 3yo sprint conditions race behind El Caballo (now G2 winner) Tiber Flow (Now G3 Winner) and beating Anaaf (G1 Placed) so the substance to the form is there and a mark of 100 could underestimate him still if he comes back to anything like his old self.

For a 6f sprint, the lack of pace on is quite staggering with only SPACE COWBOY and Get it likely to go forward, who even then isn't a certainty too. So the selection will need to go forward from a wide draw which hasn't been kind but the race could be run to favour him. Good Earth did win from the front last time but I think that was a one off as he broke the stalls before everyone else, so he had to go forward.

Selection - Space Cowboy EW 4pl (10/1 Betfair/Paddy, 7/1 General)

As always, thanks for reading and let's hope for as much success as last week.