The Neighsayers - 21st September

After a few quiet days recovering from the Leger week, we’re back in action for Thursday’s racing and hopefully continue the form we’ve been in. We’ve got 4 selections we think should run well and with justification too. Let’s get it into it…

2:25 - Ayr 5f Handicap

 

Very competitive stuff here so this will be a small bet, but it was very hard to ignore the Tim Easterby trained TRIPLE JAYE on her return back to Ayr. She must love the Scottish air or maybe the Haggis as she is 2 from 3 when running at Scottish tracks, including when winning this race last year off a 7lb higher mark. 

 

This screams out as a well prepped plan coming back for the race she won last year, and I feel she is in finer fettle than the form book suggests. Her Nottingham run was on GS ground, and she handled it very well in my opinion, but anything softer could be a slight concern. I feel if she runs, she will be going close.

 

Selection – Triple Jaye EW 5pl (365 16/1 , 14/1 Paddy Power/Betfair)


17:17 Ayr - 7f 50y Handicap


I think if this horse runs to form, then he’s almost certain to be there at the finish in this grade. CASSY O has ran creditably on each start this year, even when the finishing position may suggest other wise, especially given how he starts his races sometimes, which is my only concern.


Conditions should be okay given previous race record, with it no doubt being soft by the time the last race comes around. With the rain they’ve had this week, it’s a miracle there’s any good in the description still.


Pace forecast should be decent enough her too, to help bring CASSY O into the race if he is slightly slow away with Earn Your Strips, Camacho Star plus End Zone and Merricourt have also raced prominent previously. 


The major appeal is the class drop angle, first time ever in a class 6 race and having won a class 3 0-85 just last year, as well as placing in a 0-85 just 2 starts back, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t run well here and is a very solid each way price.


Has to give 3lb age allowance to the improving 3 year olds but he has enough back class here to win well. 


Selection - Cassy O E/W (7/1 Betfair, Paddy, 13/2 Bet365


8:00 - Chelmsford 5f Handicap 

 

Low grade dross to end the night, but I think there is a lurker in here who is looking ready to win again. I’m hoping that Ontoawinner horses are bang at it today as The Archie Watson trained AMOR DE MI VIDA is the bet in here for me at current prices, mainly due to a slight bounce back to form the last day at Wolverhampton. Talented on her day but is quirky, showed plenty of spark early season with some lessor runs during the middle of the season.

 

What caught my eye here is the returning Hollie Doyle to the saddle, can only be a sign of intent from Archie Watson, along with AMOR DE MI VIDA dropping into Class 6 company for the 3rd time in her career, a class she has 1 win from 2 runs in. Runs here off a mark of 61, what is 2lb below last AW winning mark, putting the horse on a more than workable mark. Never ran at Chelmsford before but I feel this track could suit her prominent style of racing. 

 

I can see her just sitting behind Boom The Groom and Talamanca, hopefully travelling well enough to pounce on them. I don’t think the race will take much winning and I think were the best handicapped horse in the race. If she’s on a going day, she’s more than good enough to win this.

 

Selection – Amor De Mi Vida EW 3pl (11/1  365 , 8/1 Paddy Power/Betfair)


8:30 Chelmsford - 1m 2f Handicap


A trio of duck eggs in the form book for the selection, but there’s no way this doesn’t improve for the switch to the all-weather. TRACKMAN has a plethora of All-Weather winners in the family including Dubai Love (RPR105), Zealot 8 time all weather winner (RPR104), the pornstar, Nick Vedder (RPR89) and Faithful Promise (RPR80), so there is definite scope for improvement on the synthetics.


Pearce boasts a 31% strike rate at Chelmsford within the last 12 months and also a 25% all time strike rate. Suggesting this is where he brings his fancied horses. O’Neill only ever rode once for pearce so hard to judge their partnerships but I just think this horse has to be better than a rating of 45 and here seems a good place to start.


This is such a poor race that if he couldn’t show anything here I’d be reluctant to go again with him, even if he does need the run.


Let’s hope he’s matured with a summer in his back and filled into his frame and can return in a positive light here.


Selection - Trackman EW (25/1 Betfair, Paddy Power)


Thank you so much for all the support recently, we don’t miss anything and it’s genuinely appreciated. Let’s hope to continue the form here.

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