The Neighsayers - Racing League Week 4
Racing League Week 4
The racing league is back and so are we. Normally the selections all come from Lewis but this week the help of Quinny has been resourced and we're both putting up some selections for Gosforth Park this week. Although the selections might not show it, we're still hoping that London and The South can make a miraculous comeback but without further ado, let's get into it...
Race 1 – 1m 4f Handicap – 3yo+
Much like one later in the blog, we’re returning to the
scene of the crime, with the Michael Bell trained TRUE COURAGE. He won
the race here C&D last year off a 1lb higher mark and this year’s renewal is
in a lower grade.
He seems to have been brought to hand this year with this
race in mind, his first start of the season was promising enough when staying
on late against some well handicapped rivals, just a complete float up. He then
had what looked like another quiet run at Yarmouth, considering he’d never ran well
on soft ground he must’ve just been there to put him right for this race.
There’s a decent pace forecast here with Nuits St Georges,
Natchez Trace, Chase The Dollar, Isle of Sark and Glenister all previously racing
prominently, they’re likely to go quick here and that could set it up for TRUE
COURAGE who is typically a strong traveller and should play a large part in
the finish. Lizzie Jean could also benefit from this set up however, but not as
well handicapped.
Selection – True Courage EW 4pl (9/1 Betfair, Paddy Power,
William Hill)
Race 2 - 7f Handicap – 2yo Only
This looks a relatively poor nursey considering the one’s we
have seen so far in the Racing League however there’s one in here for me who
looks to have plenty of scope to improve now handicapping and substance to his
form. I’M PUZZLED trained by Roger Charlton for Wales and the West has
been improving slowly with every run and looks to be ready for further or try another
stiff 7, which he gets here.
On debut he was green and out of it, but on his 2nd
start he progressed where he was 5th behind Al Musmak who was subsequently
2nd in a listed race, Under the sun in 2nd was 6th
in the Convivial which is fair and then In 6th behind him at Ascot
was Prepschool, who won one of the Juddmonte novice series races as he liked. On
his 3rd start he was 4th at Epsom, which is respectable
to me given he didn’t look madly in love with the track and he was short of
room when beginning to challenge.
Away from the selection, Beechwood Star would have a chance
but looks hard to win with…
Selection – I’m Puzzled (5/1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 9/2 General)
Race 3 – 7f Handicap 3yo+
5/1 the fav here tells you all you need to know about the competitiveness of this, with lurkers and progressive types rocking up for some nice prize money. Team Ireland look to have a nice hand with 2 very nicely handicaped horses, but it is The Wales & The West who will be getting my vote here with the Rod Millman trained BILLY MILL.
Caught the Eye at entry stage due to Millman not being a Newcastle regular, only ever running 4 horses at the track in his long training career. The trip up from Devon won’t be wasted by this shrewd yard, what assures me that BILLY MILL will be cherry ripe for another effort at the Racing League. Caused a shock when winning over C&D in last year’s Racing League, after travelling keenly but having enough in the finish to put away a competitive field. Has been valiant in defeat for the majority of this season, but his nose 2nd LTO suggested to me that his win is just round the corner.
He returns to the scene of his last win, what was off a 1lb higher mark (including jockey claim), along with potentially getting a nice race set up in this, with a clear lack of pace/prominent racers being declared. This gives BILLY MILL a great chance of sitting 2nd behind Ray Vonn and pouncing when Saffie wants to. If the forecasted pace is correct, this will not suit Yaaser, Half Nutz, Chola Empire, Mobashr, Le Reveur and Akmaam, a large chunk of the market what all have negatives against them from the get-go.
This race should have been the plan since he crossed the line in 1st over C&D last year, and he should be cherry ripe for a return trip up north. Strong EW bet.
Selection – Billy Mill EW 13/2 (365, 11/2 General)
Race 4 – 6f Handicap 3yo+
Great turn out again here, but In my opinion this isn’t as strong as the field size suggests, with a few in here what I think will be out of their depth in a race of this nature or, arnt handicapped well enough to play a part in the finish. In my opinion, there is a standout EW bet here at the current prices. The Tim Easterby trained SNASH sticks out here like a sore thumb, after dropping in the weights all season after slightly lacking consistency.
2-Time AW winner when trained by Charlie Hills, SNASH has been prepped for his big field turf handicaps for his current yard, staying well clear of the AW, a surface I feel he looked well at home on in his early days. Judging by his breeding, I’m pretty shocked this is his first run back on the Tapeta since February 2021, with his Dam’s best RPR of 81 coming on the AW and Sire’s best RPR of 116 coming over the C&D at Newcastle.
He has run well without winning this year, including a staying on 5th in the Great St Wilfred Consolation race, where he showed enough to suggest a win is just round the corner. This may be a stroke of brilliant placing returning to the AW or I may be completely wrong with this, but I feel the return to this surface could spart a late season resurgence with SNASH, who may go onto run in the Ayr Silver Cup. He will run here off 73, a 15lb lower mark than his winning effort in the Ayr Gold Cup trial in July 2022, making SNASH a seriously well handicaped horse.
The only downside to this selection is the trainers truly woeful season he has had, massively underachieving with a 6.8% strike rate since January (0.66 A/E), what is very concerning for the chances of this one, but I will take my chance at the rather appealing price of 16/1. Owners landed a touch with him last year so market support should be marked up significantly, he could potentially be chucked in here off his current mark if today is the day.
Selection – Snash 16/1 EW (365, 12/1 (General)
Race 5 - 1m 2f Handicap - 3YO+
A very trappy race on paper with nothing looking to have a glaringly obvious chance, but CAP FRANCAIS can certainly outrun his price here. Ian Williams brought back to form nicely at Newmarket last time beaten only by a horse who was better placed than he was. I think the trainer has done a brilliant job of lowering this horses sights and although 0-3 on the all weather, that doesn't tell the full picture...
He's ran in a listed race on the all weather, a small field trappy handicap where he placed 4th and then outclassed on his most recent start, I think there's every indication that he will go on this surface.
If he can race a little closer to the pace here I make him a great each way shout and would be happy to back here.
Selection - Cap Francais EW 4pl (14/1 Bet365, 12/1 General)
Race 6 - 1m Handicap - 3YO+
HELM ROCK is back to his last winning mark now of 86, which gives him every chance of returning to form but running at a track where he'll be involved in a stiff finish. Although he's never turned out at Newcastle, he has form at tracks such as Ascot, Carlisle, Sandown and Pontefract which you won't find many stiffer.
I think the selection provides a solid each way angle into the race as I can find negatives in a few of the market leaders. Parlando hung at Newmarket last time, is he still feeling something or could he even bounce. Hartswood although consistent enough, doesn't look the horse he was. Master Richard doesn't have a strong record when following up quickly, Longesior is an AW maiden still and Arthur's Realm just looks to be in the grips of the handicapper at the moment.
So by process of elimination and being back on his last winning mark. HELM ROCK can make an impression in the finish here.
Selection - Helm Rock EW 4pl (17/2 William Hill, 8/1 Bet365, Coral)
Race 7 - 5F Handicap - 3YO+
Finally, we've got a cracking sprint race on the card. For this to be a handicap I think is a bit of an Injustice, if this was a listed race, not many would moan, but here we are. In other circumstances I'd like to back plenty of these, race set up the main limiting factor. With Fine Wine, Swayze, Silky Wilkie and Dakota Gold likely to go off like the clappers, this should set up for a closer.
The closers in here are likely to be Alligator Alley, which I just can't bring myself to back, Batal Dubai who we saw win late, but impressively on Northumberland Plate day and the selection here, BADRI. He won the 6F race here last year in the racing league off a mark of 82, which tells you the kind of trajectory he's been on this year. He seems to relish the stiff 5 here being 2 - 3 this calendar year off marks of 88 and 90. Which he's improved 10lb on since then.
For reason's unbeknownst to us, the owners have moved their horses from the Ruth Carr yard to other trainers. Twelfth Knight won 2nd time up for Paul Midgely and I'm hoping the Camacho's can win first time up here. They've improved plenty of sprinters over the years and I hope they can continue to do that here.
Selection - Badri Ew 4pl (14/1 Bet365, Coral, William Hill) **16/1 is available but only 3pl.
Good luck as always and thank you for reading.
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