The Neighsayers - Antepost Angle & Friday/Saturday Tips from York

Antepost Angle 

Another Antepost bet here from myself. I think I’ve found a great EW angle into one of the seasons marquee races. Let’s just hope it’s better than the last blog I did… @Swan1_Oliver 

I was massively impressed with Onesto on comeback run in the Group 1 Jacques le Marios, staying on gamely over the inadequate trip of 1m into 4th, following a 9-month layoff. Both the trainer and jockey mentioned post-race how the horse “would have gone very close had he ran previously this year”. This horse is bred for the middle distances, and I expect the horse to come on massively from that run, back up to a suitable trip. 

 

This is where I land on him in the Irish Champion Stakes. Last year’s 2nd, he was just denied by the Aiden O’Brien trained Luxembourg, in one of last year’s races of the season. I expect this race to be the plan again and I can see him being bang ready to go one better this season and win. 

 

Looking at the market, I feel like this race will cut up massively. Ace impact installed as rightly fav, will have the choice of either her or the arc trials day in France. Mostadaf was impressive in the G1 Juddmonte and I think the race will be too soon for the horse. He likes long layoffs between races. 

 

I expect King Of Steel to line up here following a bypass of the Juddmonte and a layoff, however the 3yo form this season has taken a massive blow in recent weeks. August Rodin’s run too bad to be true last time? It would take some turnaround to see him win. 

 

We then have the likes of Al Riffa, 2nd to ace impact last time, who will have to step up again in a much more competitive field.  Bay Bridge who looks regressive this season, and Nashwa, who again surely will not come with the race being so soon.

 

Onesto to me represent a solid EW bet at 14/1, 12/1 available. I can see this race cutting up massive at the top of the market. The 3 places Antepost on offer looks very tempting, as in line with recent times I expect a small field size to be the line-up. He’s a decent play for me here. 

 

Selection: Onesto EW (Irish Champion Stakes) - 14/1 Unibet, 12/1 Sky Bet / Paddy Power / Betfair

Friday 

5:15 York - Sky Bet Mile Heritage Handicap 1m 

This is not a vintage renewal of this race by any stretch of the imagination, but there’s one in here I think is capable of a special performance. ENFJAAR made a sparkling start as a 2YO winning over 7 furlong, much shorter than will prove to be ideal. He beat opponents who have a high level of ability, with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th currently being rated 96, 85, 110 and 95 respectively. He confirmed that promise by winning in a canter at Chelmsford on his reappearance as a 3YO, before failing to cope with the drop back to 7 in the Jersey, but that might be a blessing here.

He steps back up in trip now handicapping of a mark of 98, which could look lenient come 5:20 tomorrow, or I’ll look an idiot. However, I’m willing to pay to find out.

There’s plenty in here who have raced prominently in the past, which should see a decent pace set, the two Johnston runners like to front run, although I’d only expect to see one of them make it. Alzahir, Modesty and Bajan Bandit have all made the pace previously too, so there’s plenty of options to force the lead and our draw in 10 should see us able to drop in behind the leaders finish with a wet sail.

I make the dangers English Oak and Silver Sword, but I think they both want 10 furlongs rather than the just short of a mile here, so that should play into our hands and see us land the spoils in the nightcap.

Selection - Enfjaar (4/1 General)

Saturday

2:25 York - Melrose Handicap 1m6f

This is probably one of the trickiest handicaps of the year to try and call the winner, but I’m going to give it a go and to be honest, I can’t see it being out of the places.

MIDDLE EARTH has form amongst the right horses to be a serious threat at this level and I’m certain this season will conclude in him competing in pattern races.

On debut he was beaten by Westerton who’s now rated 95 as well as finishing in front of The Goat now rated 93 and Kathab now rated 91. Stepping forward from that run he went to Kempton and was given a beating by Lion’s Pride but there’s no harm in that. He’s favourite for a listed race on Saturday and could be prominent in the Leger market. He again beat the goat that day. The last start, he finished in front of Baaeed’s half brother Naqeeb, beating him a nose over a mile and half and only getting going late, giving every indication the 14F here will suit.

His pedigree gives that impression too, he’s a half brother to horses such as Buckaroo, rated 112. Also Kihavah who’s a 3 time course winner on the Knavesmire who ply’s his trade over 12 furlongs on the flat amongst spins over hurdles. He’s rated 98 on the flat and more importantly, a winner on good to firm ground. His final sibling, Thousand Oaks seems to have been retired now after just 5 starts but she was rated 87 and was also a quick ground winner of a mile and half.

The family is ladened with stamina and with Roaring Lion able to stamp his staying ability and toughness, this I think is an absolutely knocking each way bet.

Selection - Middle Earth (EW 10/1 4 places, Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)

3:35 York - Sky Bet Ebor Handicap 1m6f 

 

One of the most valuable handicaps in the UK, attracts a full field of 22 this year but its lacking class in my opinion. Bottom weight getting in here off 95 is not normally the case and a few are lucky to get in the race. This has played into the hands of the veteran EUCHEN GLEN, who sneaks in off a mark of 96 this year.

 

Showed more than enough LTO at Goodwood, coming from unpromising position on very tough ground, whilst reposing pair of Sweet William and Adjuvant had much better track position throughout the race. He gets a 4lb turnaround against the fav, giving him a decent chance to reduce the margin from the Goodwood run.

 

The old boy hasn’t run with a weight under 9st since the 2017 November Handicap, and he should be feeling like he’s running loose with such little weight in the saddle. Returns to a course he loves, never beaten far in all his runs bar one at York (ran off 116 in Ebor 2020). Must have been targeted for this all year and trainer Jim Goldie who is an excellent target trainer should have him spot on for this. Should have finished much closer in the race last year, but bad luck in running stopped him from going close. That effort was off a 6lb higher mark and if he shows any form like that, he will be going very close to winning. Potential pace coming from Caius Chorister, Tashkhan, Live Your Dream and Cemhaan, could potentially give EUCHEN GLEN a perfect race set up providing the forecasted pace isn’t false. Has the running style what is suited in these big field handicaps, and he will be coming with a late rattle from the rear, hopefully granted better luck in-running than last year.

 

Hes not got his head Infront for a while now but it wouldn’t shock me if he got a deserved win here on Saturday. I will advise that you back him EW with extra places on offer with all bookies, as well as playing him in the place markets (Exchange or Sportsbook) as he more often than not is running into a place in these types of races. 40/1 is a great value price for such a well handicapped horse.

 

Selection – Euchen Glen EW 40/1 Betfair/Paddys 6places, 33/1 Hills, 365 6 places 

 

 

4:45 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes 5f 

 

Good turn out here for a listed race, with many showing up what I feel could have maybe had higher grade of race in mind. BAHEER is a standout bet for me in this company after showing loads of ability in his maiden and in a G3 at Goodwood. Was labelled as “the best 2yo I’ve ever trained” by a rather delighted Richard Hannon after his maiden canter at Newbury. Obviously take that with a pinch of salt as he comes out with this unrealistic tripe every year, but I do have to agree partially, BAHEER has a very high level of ability and must be taken very seriously in this company.

 

Showed loads in the G3 Molcombe on ground what massively blunted his turn of foot. He rather got lost in that ground, after coming with a very promising run on the bridle, was beaten by horses who handled conditions better in my opinion. The return to quick ground will be a massive benefit for this Mehmas gelding, as his top of the ground action will be allowed to skip off the surface much easier than the ground he faced LTO.

 

Showed bundles of pace and a very high cruising speed, both key credentials you will need to have in order to play ur hand in a 5f black type event. The reopposing Purosangue is a danger after he beat him the last day, but the ground I feel could be the difference this time. He is currently a standout 11/2 with William Hill, what I feel is a fantastic price for a horse I would have been looking to back for the G2 Gimcrack at similar prices, this is much easier. Take any price EW in and around 5/1, I feel he won’t be out the places. Great opportunity for a Listed win.

 

Selection – Baheer EW 11/2 William Hill , 9/2 Paddys/Betfair, 365

Best of Luck if your following! Keep punting.