The Neighsayers - Wednesday 5th July

Wednesday 5^th July 

 

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On a normal day these are the type of bets I’m looking for, normally big price horses what may have run better than previous results suggested or maybe horses I feel are being prepped for 1 day in mind. All selections here in my opinion are overpriced and I expect all of them to SP shorter than the price advised within this blog. 2X 33/1 Winners were tipped up at Royal Ascot on twitter spaces, were hoping to keep up with the big price winners here. Stay Lucky. @LukeQuinn01

 

Prices Correct at time of writing*

 

3:45 Thirsk - 6f Handicap 

 

Competitive handicap for the grade, with many horses looking ready to strike, I will be having an EW bet on the Tina Jackson trained POINT OF WOODS, who has made the Eye-Catchers blog twice in the last 2 months after running better than his finishing positions suggest. You could argue that he may have been stopped the last twice or that he wasn’t granted luck in running, but I’ll let you guys decide on that one.

 

He impressed me last year over C&D where he bolted up off a mark of 54, after that the handicapper may have got hold of him so it was the right thing for the trainer to do to start slowly dropping him back to an attractive mark. Hes dropped to a mark of 46 now what is more than workable in low grade 6f handicaps. He returns to Thirsk today what is a bonus and with a decent pace forecasted here he could get a very nice tow into the race from off the pace. Connor Murtagh takes the ride, what has slightly put me off as I would have liked to see Phil Dennis booked, but he rides another In the race. Hes drawn in 2 what isn’t a problem for a hold up horse as he will be able to track across to the centre if needing more pace to aim at. His current price of 33/1 is rather big for me and should be taken. Slight worry that he may be saved for another day, but I’ll take my chance at them prices. (Future targets listed below)

 

Selection –  0.5PT EW Point Of Woods 33/1 (Paddy Power , Betfair)

 

Potential future targets if “not off”

 

Wednesday 2^nd August 6f 46-55 at Redcar

 

Friday 11^th August 6f 0-50 at Thirsk 

 

4:15 Thirsk - 1m Novice

 

Novices are not normally races I like to bet in, but one here sticks out for a bet for me with significant improvement likely to come from this runner. The Ed Walker trained ENGLISH OAK is the horse I’ll be betting here, he has been put in the market at  5/1, what is about fair. Hes a half to Forest of Dean (RPR 116) and State Occasion (RPR 110), both types who improved for trips 1m+, along with ENGLISH OAKS dam suggesting the step up in trip will suit here. 

 

Nicely put together type from what I saw on debut, nice mover, big strong neck, and overall size. Ran very green on debut, not really understanding what his job was but did show enough physically that he will be much better with more racing under his belt. Will have to run to mid 70s to get involved here, a rating I’m sure he will be much better than in time. I think he will be more than capable to be competitive here on 2^nd start and current prices should be taken. Many of the market principles have all had chances to win races and haven’t yet, showing their vulnerability to unexposed potential improvers, ENGLISH OAK could just be that. 

 

Selection – 0.5pt EW English Oak 5/1 (Paddy Power , Betfair)

 

4:50 Thirsk – 7f Handicap

 

Open race here again at Thirsk but one massively stood out to me at the prices and that is the Jessica Macey trained MERCURIUS POWER, talented on his day but has had slight wind problems what may have held him back slightly.

 

Made a very good stable debut at Newcastle finishing 4^th beaten 2l on the AW (after wind op), didn’t kick on from that but I don’t think Hes had conditions to suit in order for him to win. 1m on heavy ground won’t have suited at Doncaster, similar case at Pontefract over a stiff 1m where he didn’t get home, Beverley was a better run over the extended 7f but again he was weak in the finish, but that can be explained with the absence of the toungestrap and finally his latest run no toungestrap and wasn’t knocked about when beaten. In that time, he has dropped 9lb for running in races where trip, track, headgear were not in his favour and I feel that he gets all conditions here to go close. runs off 68 here what is more than workable, Connor takes off a valuable 5lb allowing him to run off a career low mark of 63. Planas/Macey teamed up for a winner earlier on in the week, maybe hinting at the intent with this runner. Not much pace forecasted here so providing he is font of mid div or handier, he will be in a perfect position to strike. I feel that the 7f at Thirsk on quicker ground will be right up his street, and with the toungestrap being reapplied, it would be rude not to bet him at his current price of 16/1.

 

Selection – 1pt EW Mercurius Power 16/1 (365) 

 

8:45 Bath - 1m3 ½f Handicap 

 

Low grade stuff here but I think there is a nice bet to be had. The fav is in fine fettle at the moment, but I think I’ve found a nice EW angle here with the Richard Hannon trained YESISAIDYES after being put in at a very attractive price of 15/2. Showed abit to work with on his debut In a very hot Pontefract novice, but then was dropped in trip and ran out the back for in 2 remaining runs for a mark. Made his handicap debut over 10f 9 days ago where he was well beaten, but the race wasn’t run to suit with the winner setting slow fractions Infront making all, whilst YESISAIDYES was dropped out the back and had no chance from his track position. Races against his elders here so is receiving weight all round, an angle I like with 3yos at this time of year as the 3yos have had the right amount of time to progress physically and will still get weight. Jockey Alex Voikhansky claims 5lb also allowing YESISAIDYES to run with at least a stone less than all his rivals. He steps up in trip what looks likely to suit on running style and breeding being a half to Grand Alliance. I would be very surprised to see YESISAIDYES having marks in the 40s-50s, id make him significantly better than that.

 

As we have seen with Roy owned horses, connections are looking for a bet so any market support should be noted significantly. I would make this significantly shorter than the prices on offer at the moment, he is a strong EW bet for me.

 

Selection –1pt EW Yesisaidyes 15/2 (365)