The Neighsayers - Monday 17th July Selections

Monday Club 


After the No show of flat racing Sunday, and the riddance of the honking July course now referred to as “The Kip”, it would be rude not to do a small blog for the competitive racing on Monday. Swanny and Lewis have found 4 bets they feel have variables in their favour, and should be going very close. GL if following, hope you enjoy reading.


3:45 Ayr - Ayr Gold Cup Trial Handicap 6f


A competitive handicap trial for one of our famous sprints on the calendar, I like the look of the Grant Tuer train ILLUSIONIST. A return to soft ground should suit this horse after an encouraging run at Haydock last month, finishing midfield. He showed enough to suggest a return to the winner’s enclosure shouldn’t be too far away once he gets his conditions. Versitile over 5-6f and gets a good draw in 6, I see the 14/1 on offer a great EW play. 


Selection - Illusionist EW (14/1 Bet365, 11/1 Hills) 


4:20 Ayr- Afternoon Tea at Western House Hotel Handicap 6f

Another competitive handicap here, I was really impressed with ELLADORA on Thursday at Carlisle, where she was just touched off into 2nd, clear of the 3rd. With the sounder surface today, I think her running style from the front will suit and I see her taking the beating today. She’s a game filly and has been very consistent in recent months. No pace forecasted here so she might well get it very easy on the front end. Confident selection.


Selection - Elladora (5/1 Hills, Betfair, Paddy Power, 9/2 Bet365) 


7:10 Windsor - Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap 6f


These Windsor Sprint series qualifiers are always competitive, but I’ve come down on the Ed De Giles Trained TREACHEROUS. I find it interesting that this will be the veterans 2nd time in a sprint series race, having finished midfield previously, before another midfield finish at Doncaster. He has run consistently this season, with a win at Newbury a few starts back now. I believe the team may be eying up this sprint series for this horse with a long-term aim being the final, should he find himself at the business end here. 


Selection - Treacherous EW (20/1 Betfair, Paddy Power , 16/1 Sky Bet , 12/1 Hills)


8:30 Wolverhampton - Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap 6f

 

Following on from Swanny’s selections, I’d like to row in with one of my own and I’m going all the way to the 8:30 at Wolverhampton. I’m taking the chance with SERGEANT PEP each way. Looking through the form book it’s fairly clear to see now he’s an all-weather horse and a return to this surface is a major positive. He’s recorded 212 around the course, all in novice events.

He has one way of running and one way only, from the front. Although this is a big field all weather race, there isn’t an abundance of pace likely. Erosion Risk and Rogue De Vega are the likely pace pressures but Rogue De Vega may change tactics now handicapping so he’s no certainty to force the speed. Erosion Risk is a serial loser too, 0-13 on the all-weather but 10 times being either 2nd or 3rd.


SERGEANT PEP’s 4th last time out at Windsor was a massive step back in the right direction given that he was last away which as mentioned isn’t his style of running but he recovered well to finish a never nearer 4th. The form of that race too has some fair substance as the 3rd that day, rated 87 won a much better race next time out.


He’s down into class 5 handicap company in his first 0-75, having made his handicap debut in a 0-85 on all-weather finals day. The Clive Cox yard at 4-18 within the last week too, so they’re going well enough to be able to pose a threat here at a decent price


Selection - Sargent Pep (10/1 Bet 365 , 6/1 General)


 

 

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