The Neighsayers - Friday 21st July

Friday 21^st July 

 

5:20 Newbury 1m Handicap 

 

This big field looks competitive on first glance, with the full complement taking their chance here, but in my opinion, I feel the race is full of dead wood what can be ruled out before the starter lets them go. ISLE OF JURA looks a standout bet for me at the current prices of 4/1, after an Eye-Catching effort LTO behind the NTO winner Tiffany. Restrained in rear, made decent headway into the race with not many getting involved from off the pace until late, no clear run before being switched, where ISLE OF JURA then ran on nicely under hands and heels for 4^th.

 

This stoutly bred Lope De Vega looks to have bags of scope, nice physical type who looks Asif he is coming on with every run for new trainer George Scott. The aforementioned trainer likes to bring his horses on slowly with handicaps in mind, so it wouldn’t be a shock here to see a much-improved performance from ISLE OF JURA. He has been given an opening mark of 71 what I feel is more than workable on his return to turf, along with the step up to 1m what on running style and pedigree is sure to suit. 

 

Drawn in 2 here giving jockey Callum Sheppard plenty of options tactically, I wouldn’t mind him mid div not too far back to avoid the potential banana skin of traffic problems into the straight. I feel that he will be much better than a mark of 71 and morning prices should be taken.

 

Selection – Isle of Jura 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair)

 

5:00 Haydock 7f Handicap 

 

Weak contest on paper for me, with many of the runners looking rather exposed and not having much room in their current handicap marks. With my confidence on the first selection, It would be rude not to bet NIGIRI after running an equally Eye-Catching race in the same Wolverhampton novice as Isle Of Jura.

 

Reared as the stalls opened and was always against it from then on LTO, jockey didn’t rush her up and let her work into the race with minimal assistance. Was given a nice educational ride, looked to pass horses very easily under a tender handling, ran on very strongly in final furlong into 3^rd(+4.84 above race finish percentage clocking 11.74 final f). Impressive back-end sectional under tender handling suggesting she has much more under the bonnet than shown. Return to the turf won’t be an issue, but the ground coming up soft will be a slight question mark, even though on breeding and judging by her action she should be fine. Opening mark of 67 seems very lenient for me, I’d have her at the end of year pushing the 80+ mark.

 

Selection – Nigiri 6/5 (General)

4:45 Newbury Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed)

The talking horse of Royal Ascot, Asadna makes his debut for the Haynes outfit in this race and is probably the right favourite with him seeing plenty of money this morning. However, that's pushed the price out of the selection PALMAR BAY. He blew all chance of making a winning debut by fly leaping out the stalls at Windsor, so was given an educational ride. He then took a huge step forward winning at Salisbury where he raced away from the rail which is generally not where you want to be, so it can be upgraded for me. He needed every yard of the 5 furlong trip that day, so the step up to 6 looks the natural place to go. The form has been well advertised, with Jasour winning the Group 2 July Stakes, fairly comfortably at HQ (Wind form though, so time will tell how literally we can take that).

Shagraan and Balon D'or should ensure a decent pace to aim at and give us every chance of doing our best work late, but that will also aid Asadna. I think we have the better horse though. PALMAR BAY I'd expect to see come off the bridle earlier than others, but on that Salisbury run he certainly finds for pressure and over this trip should bring out more improvement.

Selection - Palmar Bay E/W (7/1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 13/2 Bet365, William Hill)

7:05 Hamilton Scottish Stewards Cup Handicap

This race just looks perfect for CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD, he looks very well handicapped, conditions look ideal and it's a marked drop in grade from where he's competed so well already this season. He's placed 3rd in a £40k handicap and 2nd in a 100k heritage handicap off 1lb lower marks than today's mark of 89. With those runs coming at Newmarket, where they have an uphill finish coming out of a dip, this almost identical finish should be right up his street.

He likes to sit just behind a decent pace, which should be on here with Paws For Thought, Gis A Sub and Autumn Festival likely to take each other on and set it up for the closes, I just can't see how we're far away.

Since Jack has taken over the sole license, he's sent one horse North of the border and came home with a placed effort and he's also used James Doyle once, which was a victorious partnership, so albeit it's a very small pool size given how long he's had his license, let's hope they mean something here.

Selection - Chairmanoftheboard E/W (11/1 William Hill 4pl, 10/1 Coral, Ladbrokes 4pl) 

Go well if you're following and good luck with your own selections on a busy Friday.