The Neighsayers - Oaks Preview

Oaks Preview 

No twitter spaces call this week from The Neighsayers due to availability from us all, so it would only be fair to do a blog going through every runner in-depth in this year’s Derby/Oaks, with recommended bets from us in each race. Enjoy reading, hope its informative for you all.

 

*Prices correct at time of publishing

 

Be Happy 

Price - 33/1

 

Decent horse on the level but she was more than put in her place in the Lingfield Oaks Trial by Eternal Hope. Looked slow that day in my opinion and this test of the equine species at Epsom may not be ideal for her. Not on my radar

 

Bright Diamond 

Price – 50/1

 

Interesting runner for the red-hot Karl Burke. Mightily impressive debut winner at HQ, but then was put in her place in group company since, but her 2yo form would put her in with a squeak of running well in what looks a weak Oaks. Was behind a few of these in comeback run at Lingfield but she did show promise that day and maybe shouldn’t be wrote off on her return to turf. Shouldn’t be a 50/1 poke, don’t ignore.

 

Caernarfon 

Price – 33/1 

 

Improving consistent type at 2yo, proved that she had trained on with a decent 4th in the 1000G. Extra 4f in trip is a question mark for me, along with the significantly quicker ground than what she faced on her last run. Trainer Jack Channon has expressed in the past that she will need slow ground to perform to her best. Can ignore her here in my opinion.

 

Eternal Hope 

Price – 12/1 

 

One of the more fancied runners after a taking win in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Supplemented to come here off the back of that so connections must fancy her to put up a decent showing. Good showings on the AW, can she translate that to turf at a very tricky track? Im not sure. Not looking to back at the moment.

 

Heartache Tonight 

Price – 18/1 

 

Fascinating runner here being a half-sister to duel G1 winner Wonderful Tonight. Showed more than enough on 3 runs to suggest she is a group filly in the making. Latest run at Longchamp was full of promise, shaping as a stayer when only beaten a 1¾L over 10f, a trip what is defiantly on the sharp side. Step up in trip is sure to suit but unraced on anything but slop, leaving me with slight concerns on the ground however, she is a filly I would like to take forward through the season. Watch with a view to the future.

 

Maman Joon 

Price – 50/1 

 

Very interesting runner here in my opinion. Ran a very good race in Newbury maiden on slop, chasing home a very good winner. Didn’t really handle the slop that day and would have gone much closer on better ground. Wanted to see her rock up in a trial but they have opted to come straight here what is a bold move. Don’t be put off that she’s still a maiden, Mojo Star ran in the Derby as a maiden and he ran a stormer, Amo wouldn’t waste a bullet if they didn’t think she was good enough to run well. Worth a small bet at 50/1, try take extra places if you can.

 

Red Riding Hood

Price – 33/1

 

Decent horse on the level, ran well last time out in first time blinkers behind Caroline Street, didn’t fully settle great in the headgear did well to finish 3rd. She would have to settle much better here to play a part in the finish and the bare form of her maidens and race LTO isn’t up too much. Would be a shock winner.

 

Running Lion 

Price – 5/1 

 

Very impressive winner of the Pretty Polly at HQ travelled all over her rivals that day and barely pushed out to settle a facile win. Question marks on that form for me with the 2nd coming out and getting stuffed in a HQ Novice and the 4th getting beat in the Diane trial in Germany earlier this week. Her work vid from Epsom didn’t impress me much either, she was abit green on the camber, changing her legs all the time not really handling the track, that experience would have put her in good stead for the oaks, but she isn’t for me here. Wouldn’t back her, wouldn’t lay her.

 

Savethelastdance

Price – 6/5 (2.32)

 

Neck on the line here. Rightly fav after her 22l rout at Chester, backed up by good time what on the bare analysis would make her hard to peg back here……But, in my honest opinion I feel that plenty of variables aren’t in her favour here and she is worth LAYING at her current price. Looked a big galloping type, looked to relish the soft ground at Chester, and she certainly won’t get that here, Unraced on quicker than soft ground what puts a massive question mark over her on ground. Picked up well in the end at Chester but didn’t look filled with pace early so she may be caught out by faster rivals on a tricky track. The form of her Chester win is complete and utter tripe, not a single horse ran to a mark over 85 that day and that’s being generous. The 4thand the pulled-up horse are the only horses to test the form and were well beaten in Goodwood listed race last week also. 20/1 winner of a Leopardstown maiden in April leaves me with questions like how has she gone off 20/1 if “The Lads” knew she was so good?, I’m not convinced by the hype. Plenty of runners who I would rather have over her at the prices, happy to lay her at that short price.

 

Sea of Roses

Price – 50/1

 

Ran to good levels at 2yo, bumping into derby hopeful in a Ffos Las novice, yes u read that right……Ffos Las novice. Beat Infinite Cosmos at Doncaster 2nd time out, showing nice attitude and ability. Was put in her place over in France on her first start as a 3yo what slightly burst her bubble, but then was well and truly put in her place in the Musiodora, where she ran no race whatsoever. Maybe she wasn’t in love with the quick ground at York what if the case will be massively against her this weekend. Trip will suit here but would be more interested in her later in the year on softer ground.

 

Soul Sister 

Price – 5/2

 

Firstly, Well done if you got the huge prices before York. Doncaster maiden winner on soft ground, didn’t pull up any trees but got the job done on ground she wouldn’t have liked. Line through her run in the Fred Darling, got lost on the ground down in trip what put ends to any chance. Left that run well behind when taking out the Musiodora in taking style. Impressive last 3f sectionals and finishing % putting her well on top on my figures coming into the Oaks. Looked to relish the fast ground so providing the clerk doesn’t make a balls of the going, she will relish conditions at Epsom. Dam has provided plenty of winners over 1m4f+ including a full brother to Soul Sister, giving me no stamina doubts. Can’t say much bad about her and she’s the likeliest winner for me. 

 

Recommended bets

 

Soul Sister 5/2 4pt win

 

Maman Joon 50/1 0.5pt EW

 

Savethelastdance 2.32 5pt Liability win lay (Betfair Exchange)

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