The Neighsayers - Irish Guineas Weekend Tips
Irish Guineas Weekend Tips
No twitter spaces call for us this week due to other commitments, so it would be rude not to do a write up regarding our selections for the weekend. Lewis and Quinny have put their heads together to churn out Some nice EW bets along with the sole selection on Sunday, Hopefully the selections can do the business. Stay lucky.
4:25 York Class 3 1m Handicap
This race is as to be expected when you get Saturday handicaps
on the Knavesmire, ultra-competitive. There’s plenty of horses in this race for
flashy connections, but I’m siding with the Martin Webb Racing owned THEME
PARK. I thought he posted a career best run last time out, which might seem
mental to say considering that was his lowest finishing position in his races
to date. He showed a much-needed return to form that day and I’m putting that
also down to quicker ground. He'll retain the quicker ground back on the Knavesmire
and along with the extra furlong here, he should be primed to run a cracking
race.
He was never nearer the last day, which was encouraging as
it was over a much shorter trip than ideal, showing signs that his first win in
handicap company isn’t far away. The handicapper give him a lb back for that
showing which is another positive in the book here. I think he might still need
further than this trip yet still, but I think this race set up should see him
to best effect. There’s a lot of early pace on and if they get light up by
taking each other on, or taking a pull it’s a massive positive for THEME
PARK. Maximillian Caesar and Metahorse both faced at Doncaster earlier this
month and went forward early, but that was on soft ground and MC has been given
a 9lb rise for that win and I’m not sure the gelding will be able to cope with
that on polar opposite ground. Sceptic and Dubai Jemila have gone forward when
in a reasonable grade as has Saxon King. So we could be sitting off a hot pace
and just simply do our best work at the finish and fly home.
Theme Park EW – 10/1 Bet365
2:05 Goodwood - Class 2 7f Handicap
Yet another trappy Saturday handicap, however I’m taking a
flyer at one that I think hasn’t had the best campaigning, even as a 2 year
old. ANCESTRAL LAND I’ve always fancied as a classy horse, particularly
on good ground or quicker. He got his first win over 6 furlongs on good-soft
ground, which weren’t ideal, but was just too good in a horrid maiden. He’s had
one go at 7F, which I think is his ideal trip and that was on heavy ground in
the Group 3 Horris Hill, however he did still finish 3rd.
He's tried the mile last twice and failed to stay, despite
travelling well. So, I think a stiff 7 on good ground, which he gets here at Goodwood
is seriously right up his street and we could be dealing with the old cliché of
having a group horse in a handicap and he’s just too big a price down at this
level.
Much like the set up for the previous selection, a couple of
these can be forward going, keen sorts so that should suit ANCESTRAL LAND who
I expect to travel into the race strongly and hopefully see his race out better
over what I think is his ideal trip.
Ancestral Land EW – 16/1 General
2:25 Haydock - Class 2 1m Silver Bowl Handicap
We’re handicapping again for my final selection this weekend
and no surprise, it’s another ultra-competitive one. STORMBUSTER has opened
up as the rag of the field which is an absolute insult of the highest order.
This is his handicap debut on what will be his 8th start of his
career, which tells you the kind of company he’s been keeping. He’s had 2
moderate starts to his life as a 3YO, but if you look at the horses’ profile I can
why they’ve been modest. First of all, the dam was an absolute concrete lover
and he’s come back this year with 2 starts in Derby trials in the slop, plus a
trip I don’t think he gets, yet.
His 3 runs on ground that have been either good or good to
form, show figures of 321. Including comfortably winning by 5 lengths in a conditions
stakes, beating horses such as Highbank and Classic, who were highly touted at
the time and both rated In the 90’s. The 2nd place finish in that sequence
was 2nd in a listed race, only rattling ground just not having the
speed for the 7 furlongs that day.
Covey is probably the right favourite given what she’s done
so far, but who knows what she can do off a mark of 90. I think we have the
best horse in the race and hopefully the ground is as forecast at Haydock… (that’s
a different topic all together for a different day)
Stormbuster EW – 25/1 Coral, Bet365, Ladbrokes
4:55 Goodwood - Class 4 5f Handicap
Good race for the grade here, a 5f sprint on rattling quick ground, what a spectacle. In my humble opinion, I feel that most runners in this come here with questions to answer, either regarding trip, going, form or handicap mark leading me to a standout EW bet at a very generous price.
SWIFT ASSET is currently available at 20/1 and I feel he is worth taking a stab at here in what looks a perfect race and market set up for a solid EW bet. Ran well in top 2yo races last year, not beaten far in the Super Sprint C2, Roses Stakes C1 and The Richmond G2 respectively. Was tailed in a competitive sales race at Doncaster, but ground was GS that day and it wouldn't have suited him, excuse that. Ran on the AW in December and was well beaten but hung badly right suggesting he might have been feeling something (long break after suggests so).
Run at HQ after a long break wasn't devoid of promise, fresh early after 138 days off the track, travelled well enough to suggest he retains all ability, took a nice blow after the race suggesting he will come on a tonne for that. The winner of the HQ handicap broke the clock that day, 2.48 seconds quicker than the G3 Abernant Stakes ran on the same day, indicating the strength of the race. Further enhancing this, the 2nd,3rd,4th and 11th have all come out and won since, along with the 6th,8th and 13th placing NTO. Form is working out very well from that so it would be rude not to take it forward with SWIFT ASSET.
He gets his nice quick ground, drop back to 5f no problem judging by previous races and high cruising speed, will get a nice tow into the race here with 3 potential front runners likely to line up here, will come on for his last run at HQ (won 2nd time out as a 2yo). He has dropped to a mark of 84 what on his 2yo form is more than workable. He gets all his conditions here, this screams bet for me at a very nice EW price.
Swift Asset EW 20/1 365
4:25 Curragh (Sunday) - Gallinule Stakes 1m 2f
DRUMROLL will be carrying my money in this after impressing me in both starts to date, showing a nice attitude matched with a very high level of ability, winning his maiden (Soft) well from an unpromising position, and when chasing home stablemate Paddington in a listed race LTO (Soft).
Knee action on this one doesn't scream fast ground, but being a Full Brother to Saxon Warrior (out of G1 2yo winner Maybe (Good Ground horse), it would be naïve of me to rule out improvement on his first try on a sounder surface. Stayed on nicely in both runs, suggesting that the step up to 10f will suit. Stable mate Paddington will test the form in much deeper waters on Saturday in the Irish 2000G, seeing him go close would only enhance my thoughts on DRUMROLL for Sunday. Fingers on the bet button during the 2000G on Saturday as a prominent showing from Paddington will more than likely collapse DRUMROLLS price. Strong win bet.
Drumroll 6/5 William Hill
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