The Neighsayers - 2000 Guineas Preview

 It’s that time of the year again the first Classics of the season have rolled around and this campaign more than any other we are provided with a variety of intriguing questions. Here is a quick look at the 2000 guineas, the key contenders, and the possible outcome of this truly historic race.

 

The Probables

Auguste Rodin (13/8)

Trainer – A P O’Brien

Jockey – Ryan Moore

Form – 2111

There’s only one place to start and that’s with the favourite Auguste Rodin. An impressive winner of the Vertem Futurity on testing ground on his final start at 2, he’s generated a massive amount of talk over the Winter with his trainer, the Master of Ballydoyle Aidan O’Brien, exciting the racing public by making clear his desire to attempt the elusive Triple Crown with this Colt. Stamina assured this first foal of multiple Group 1 winning mare Rhododendron will be sure to see out the mile better than most, but will he have the gears to lay up with a few of his speedier rivals? A brisk pace will certainly bring this fella into his own but his tactical speed over this trip would be a worry. If he was able to give his trainer a 10th win in the race, then a successor to the legendary Njinsky could finally be found.

Little Big Bear 9/2

Trainer – A P O’Brien

Jockey – Wayne Lordan

Form – 21111

From one O’Brien trained colt to another, this time on the opposite end of the pace conundrum. In stark contrast to his stablemate, the question mark surrounding Champion 2 year old Little Big Bear is whether he has too much speed. Racking up a sequence of 4 wins since a narrow defeat on racecourse debut, his Juvenile campaign culminatedin one of the most destructive 2 year oldperformances we’ve seen in recent years when winning the Phoenix Stakes by 7 lengths against a good field in August.  An official rating of 134 puts him right up there with the best we’ve seen at 2 and this Son of No Nay Never has superstar written all over him. There are concerns over what impact an Injury sustained during that remarkable performance might have had on his progress given the fact we did not see him again but the vibes are positive and I don’t think the problem itself could be described than much more than a knock (the equivalent of a human losing a toenail0. The more obvious issue is whether he will see out the mile with all his wins coming over 5 and 6f, a massive negative for the stats boys. Despite his raw speed there is plenty of encouragement in his pedigree that he can see out the trip and I’m very much of the opinion that he will.

Chaldean (6/1)

Trainer – Andrew Balding

Jockey – Frankie Dettori

Form – 51111-U

Back to this side of the Irish Sea now and the first of the British hopefuls comes in the shape of Chaldean. A 3-time group winner at 2, Juddmonte’s classic hope ended last season with victory in the Dewhurst adding to his successes in the Champagne and Acomb previously.  An untypically small colt for a Frankel, it is debateable how he’s improved physically over the Winter and his prep was done no favours when unseating Frankie when leaving the stalls in the Greenham. His prominent and often front running style is however suited to the course and he won’t arrive here without his supporters. 

Royal Scotsman (17/2)

Form - 13152

Trainer – Paul and Oliver Cole

Jockey – Jim Crowley

Closely tied in with Chaldean on their Dewhurst form is Royal Scotsman. He headed into the showpiece 2-year-old event with significant stamina doubts over the 7f trip, however a fast-finishing display there (going down a head to the aforementioned winner) and with a winter on his back, he now looks sure to get the Mile of the Guineas. Consistent at 2 with only one blot on his record in the Gimcrack it’s hard to see him being too far away at the finish, whether or not he finds a couple a bit classier in this company is another question. 

The Possibles

Sakheer (17/2) 

Form – 211

Trainer – Roger Varian

Jockey – David Egan 

One of two representatives from the Varian stable Sakheer is another colt with just a hint of star quality. He put right his defeat on debut with a commanding 6 length victory in a Haydock novice next time out. It was then on to bigger and better things, following up that breakthrough win with another dominant display in the Mill Reef stakes at Newbury again over 6f. This fella looks speed speedspeed and while theres no doubting his raw ability, he in my eyes is very doubtful to see out the mile trip.

Silver Knott (14/1)

Form – 411312

Trainer – Charlie Appleby

Jockey – William Buick

The first of the Charlie Appleby trained duo, Silver Knott comes here off the back of a fruitful 2 year oldcampaign. Solid wins in the Solario and Autumn stakes sandwiched a disappointment behind Chaldean in the Champagne where he surely didn’t give his running on unsuitable ground in a tactical 3 runner affair. Finishing last season with a nose second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, he presents a solid yardstick with no doubts over the course and distance but there Is concerns if even the best of his previous form is good enough to win this against a couple of potential superstars.

Holloway Boy (14/1)

Form – 12233

Trainer – Karl Burke

Jockey – Christophe Soumillon

You’ve got to be a fair tool to win any Royal Ascot race on debut and that’s exactly what Holloway Boydid when taking out the Chesham Stakes at the most recent edition of the Royal Meeting. Although he failed to win again after this, he was taking in good company and was in the process of running a huge race in the Vertem Futurity before completing hanging his chance away. Karl Burke’s flagship 3 Year olds have been in great form and he could outrun his odds here. 

Noble Style (16/1)  

Form – 111

Trainer – Charlie Appleby

Jockey – James Doyle

Almost certainly the flashier of the Godolphin pair, the unbeaten Noble Style will be making his first racecourse appearance since powering to victory in the Gimcrack at York over 6f back in August. Although mightily impressive on this day, he is another of the field with unquestionable stamina doubts now stepping up in distance. A well-publicised lacklustre piece of work at Newmarket recently will also be lingering in Punter’s minds when he lines up at the start tomorrow. 

The Lively Outsiders

Indestructible

Form – 5122-1

Trainer – Karl Burke

Jockey – Kevin Stott

Looking to give Amo Racing their first Classic victory will be Craven winner Indestructible. He was consistent at 2 winning on second start before being beaten twice (once more convincingly than the other) behind Chaldean. He put on his most impressive performance to date however whencomfortably winning Newmarket’s premier Guineas trial in April. He’s shown he handles both track and trip but is likely to need another big step forward to be competitive here.

 

 

Dubai Mile

Form – 41121

Trainer – Charlie Johnston

Jockey – Daniel Muscutt

Dubai Mile is a prime example of the strength in depth of this years Guineas, a 2 year old group winner priced at 33/1 just highlights the calibre of race we are dealing with here.  Looking to follow in his father’s footsteps by saddling the winner of this prestigious race, Charlie Johnston will be hopeful of a stamina test for his battle-hardened Colt. His Group 1 victory coming over 1m 2f he is more than certainly going to be a more interesting proposition for the Derby however if the forecast storms do arrive he could run into the money. 

The Verdict

The fairy-tale of the Triple Crown will be well and truly alive if Auguste Rodin can do the business tomorrow. Any rain will help his cause and there’s no denying his class so he must be respected. Howeverat the prices and with glaring concerns whether this trip will see him to best affect he’s got to be passed over. I am really not a fan of Chaldean despite what he has done previously whereas I think I would have more chance of seeing out the mile than Sakheer. I have class concerns over both the Godolphin Pair with Noble Style another unlikely to be seen to his best over this trip. Holloway Boy could outrun his odds and he is one who could hit the frame at a price. Royal Scotsman has his supporters and understandably so but I would be disappointed if he was to win such a classy renewal despite his obvious claims. That leaves me with my selection Little Big Bear. I truly believe this horse could be a Superstar and although any further softening of the ground would have to be a concern, I am more than confident in his ability to win over this distance. I can see him putting the race to bed with his devastating speed lengthening clear of his rivals in little to no time, and although he then may tire close home, I think the contest could already be sewn up.

 

Selection – Little Big Bear Win @ 9/2