The Neighsayers - Good Friday Preview & Tips
Good Friday Tips
The Easter weekend is always one that promises to be a cracker and ARC haven't let us down this year again, they've put on some excellent racing for some very fair prize money, so it's no surprise that the horses have turned up. Let's just hope the fans do too. We'll be off to Newcastle on Friday which is now seemingly tradition for The Neighsayers and we hope to land on a few winners across the cards and hopefully provide some insightful information too. So, let's get into the selections.
1:30 Lingfield – 1m 4f BetUK All-weather Vase Apprentice Handicap
A competitive handicap on paper, with some great prize money on offer attracting the big yards to run some nice horses. Irish raider Santono Chevalier has been a revelation at Dundalk since stepping up to 12f, so he is high on the list, along with the very well handicapped Pistoletto, whose finishing application is questionable but certainly has some ability. My tip for this race though hails from the inform Charlie Fellows yard, PIRATE KING looks a winner in waiting at his favourite AW track. He has a record of 4 wins from 11 starts including 2 places over the C&D, creating room for optimism this has been the target for a while now.
He is now 12lb below his last C&D winning mark and 5lb below his great run in Class 2 company in mid-February. He has indicated all year that he retains all ability at the spritely age of 8, so he could be very nicely weighted for a good pot. He drops into Class 4 company for the first time since December 2019, could be a potential class angle.
Charlie Fellows was quick to book the services of Harry Davies, who operates at 22% Strike Rate when riding for Fellows, indicating the intent with PIRATE KING for his big race on Friday. Charlie has already had 2 winners in early April suggesting his horses are ready to strike in the early stages of the flat calendar. William Hill have opened up at 18/1, a good value price what is worth taking in my opinion.
2:40 Lingfield - 1m Spreadex All-Weather Vase Mile Handicap
33k for the winner has again attracted a very good field. Brewing is the clear fav but I'm keen to take him on at the prices. Johnny Murtagh was quick to book the services of Billy Loughnane for his well fancied charge, But it is last years 2nd ON A SESSION who gets the verdict at a price of 14/1. He has been ticking along nicely on the AW, carrying plenty of condition in his runs suggesting a big future target is imminent. He was beaten by the very well handicapped totally charming in last years running of the race, suggesting that a repeat bid has been on the agenda from the outset.
He is now 3lb below his last winning mark , and 3lb below his 2nd in last years running of the race, giving him a great chance at the weights to perform at a venue he clearly likes. David Barron has booked David Probert for the ride, who operates at a 21% strike rate when riding for the Barrons, indicating he rides mainly fancied horses from the yard. Hailing from a cracking target training operation, I could see him fit and ready to strike for this shrewd outfit. 14/1 is a fair price in my opinion and I would recommend taking the bet EW as he is more than likely going to finish in the places.
1:15 Newcastle - talkSPORT Burradon Stakes (Listed)
This race has often been used as a decent steppingstone for horses with much bigger targets on their agenda. Last year’s shock winner, Checkandchallenge won this on just his 2nd start before taking up his assignment in the 2000 Guineas. Other previous winners such as Megallan and Forest Ranger won this on their way to the Dante at York. This year looks the best renewal of the race since its inception in 2017 with many of these having entries in the classics and the Dante.
ARABIAN STORM looks the likely winner on paper, he brings race fitness to the table having won head in chest over 7 furlongs around 3 weeks ago, so he should be the most forward in his 3YO campaign so far. He’s currently 3/1 with William Hill and I’d say that’s a fair price in this field. His maiden form from his debut at Newmarket is stacking up, beaten only a neck by the potential superstar Enfjaar, the 3rd Bodorgan is a subsequent winner as well as Military Order too amongst others. So there’s definite substance to the form and should improve again for further.
Obelix won as he liked over course and distance on his final start as a 2YO but for me, he’ll be seen to best effect over further than the trip here and may lack the race sharpness. He’s been keen in his races too so he’ll need to have grown up over the winter to put his best foot forward. I think the danger is Karl Burke’s Flight Plan. The word on the circuit was this was his guineas horse before his 2nd start, which was here at Newcastle and he certainly didn’t harm his credentials that day, but looked in need of the run last year on debut so that could be the case here too.
1:50 Newcastle - talkSPORT All-Weather 3-Year-Old Championships Condition
Stakes (GBB Race)
A race which is filled with a lot of horses that have been
busy over the winter and are quickly becoming exposed. Since this races
inception in 2021, it’s been won by some unexposed types with Diligent Harry
winning the race on his 4th start and El Caballo won it on his 6th
start. Shouldvebeenaring is the current favourite for the race at 11/4 and on
ratings and form, is probably the right favourite. However, he is one of those
who seems to be at his ceiling. The selection for this race is SHAQUILLE,
he won a fast-track qualifier for this race in early December and has been put
away since. He’s currently 4/1 second favourite, behind the afore-mentioned
Shouldvebeenaring.
Michaela’s Boy is the likely pace angle in this race, making
all for his 2 wins on the AW so far over the winter. Other pace angles in the
race should be Desert Cop, who made all to win his maiden mid-February, but he shouldn’t
be good enough to compete with some of his rivals here. Another possible pace
angle is Glorious Angel, who has gone forward in the past but that was at a
much lower level than she faces here and since rising through the grades she’s been
raced more conservatively.
SHAQUILLE is somehow still a full horse, he’s a character and often plays up in the parade ring and can get quite sweaty, but don’t let that put you off, he still brings his best even with these quirks and he may even have grown up over the winter. He stays further than the 6F here and he may need that in his armour if they make it a test which can be the case at Newcastle.
4:45 Newcastle - BetUK All-Weather Sprint Championships Condition Stakes
Always a tricky affair to try and predict as it’s the same
old rivals that turn up race after race and if you ran these heat’s 10 times,
you’d probably have 10 different winners. I’m going to give it a go though. For
a 6-furlong sprint at this level, there’s a remarkable lack of pace in the race
and given how battle hardened these sprinters are, I can’t see that changing.
Anaaf and Diligent Harry are the worth joint favourites at
the head of the market, currently priced around 7/2 but I’d like to take them
on. EXALTED ANGEL is the selection in this race, he’s been drawn unfavourably
in recent runs and when trying to make the running, has found himself racing
wide or having to use energy early to get a position. Here, he’s drawn close to
the rail and him being the only obvious pace angle, I’ll take the chance on him
being able to set steady fractions on the front end and be able to kick for
home when he likes and catch the rest napping.
Vadream is one runner I’d like to put a line through (so
probably wins), she won as she liked at Doncaster, just 6 days ago come the off
time and connections have stated that she’s fresh and well but I just can’t
have it. The ground was horrid at Doncaster and that will definitely have taken
something out of her. I’m also not certain she acts on the All weather to best effect,
even though she’s a winner.
Diligent Harry is the one who I’d have as the danger to the
selection, he’s never been out the placings in 8 starts on the all-weather in
the UK. He will be ridden closer to the pace than some and maybe best placed to
strike If they do go idle in front.
One for Saturday
3:00 Musselburgh - tote World Pool Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap
A week on from the Lincoln meeting and it feels like the flat season cogs are slowing gathering momentum, albeit the spring / summer weather is yet to show. The rain that was desperately wanted by the tweed boys has finally found its way here…
But we find ourselves in Scotland this Saturday, on the coast at what’s sure to be a wet and windy Musselburgh. In the Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap, I’m keen to take a chance on Richard Fahey's VINTAGE CLARETS
Fahey boasts an impressive 19% strike rate at the course over the last 5 years, along with a 44% place strike rate in that time. VINTAGE CLARETS was last seen finishing tailed off in a class 2 event at Doncaster in October, a race in which he was backed into fav before the off. In this case, it seems the heavy ground got the better of the horse, although before he did in fact run 2 solid races in runner up previous, against 2 horses now with 3 figure ratings, on soft ground.
The Gelding operation looks to have helped with this horses progression, and I’m a forgiving sort on the last run with the horse being drawn away from the bias that day, along with a course that is highly favourable to those that come from off the pace. He looks a knocking each way play in a race that lacks the class he has run against in previous races.
I’m hopeful of high draw to play to his advantage Saturday. This front runner should get his own way in front with this field, along with this horses favourable ground. He has been tried previously over the 6f trip, so the slight incline of the track towards the closing stages in his race should not be a problem, should it play a part.
I’m struggling to make a case for the current fav in the market, Came From The Dark, a horse which I believe to be on the decline, and not suited by how the track is typically ridden. A general 6/1 shot, 13/2 in a place, I can see VINTAGE CLARETS being a Fav come off time.
Recommended staking plan (Prices correct at time of publishing)
1:30 Lingfield - Pirate King 0.5pt EW (18/1 William Hill)
2:40 Lingfield - On A Session 0.5pt EW (14/1 BET365)
1:15 Newcastle - Arabian Storm 1pt Win (3/1 William Hill)
1:50 Newcastle - Shaquille 1pt Win (7/2 General)
4:45 Newcastle - Exalted Angel 0.5pt EW (16/1 Boylesports, William Hill, Paddy Power, 4 places)
3:00 Musselburgh - Vintage Clarets 1pt win (8/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)
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