The Neighsayers - Craven Meeting

Although the flat season officially started just over two weeks ago, however it feels like the Craven meeting is the unofficial start amongst punters. This week the excitement will begin to build around the classics and the ante-post markets will be influenced by the results. Punters will be itching to get on the right side of the market movers in what is a week that begins full of hope. The Neighsayers are putting their heads together to provide our insight on the main races and any other business across the 3 day meeting. Away from the midweek meeting, the week cumulates at Newbury with the Greenham and the Fred Darling, the trial races for the 2000 and 1000 guineas respectively. With all that being said, we're off handicapping this week.

Tuesday -

14.25 - Rebel Territory (11/2 Hills, Betfair, Paddy)

I’m taking a chance on Rebel Territory in the national stud handicap. The Amanda Perrett trained horse has spent its career over the straight mile and Tuesday will see its first attempt at 7f. 

A winner on Ground varying from Soft to Good to Firm, I believe the stiff finish to the Rowley mile along with Horse staying the extra distance will play apart in the closing stages of the race, not to mention the front running tactics on the horse along with the front running bias of the track. 7/1 looks a very fair price for this horse. 

Id be keen to take on the Godolphin fav, New Kingdom who in my opinion looks very well handicapped and may have had fortune on his side in his latest Meydan win. The 2nd Fav, Juan Les Pins, will probably not be suited by being played late on the Rowley and although I see this as a likely improver this season, I think a track with such less bias will be better for him this summer. 

With Jim Crowley in the saddle, I expect the tactics to be simple on Rebel Territory. A very much, out the gates to the front, and away we go.

15.00 - Greatgadian EW 4 places(15/2 Hills, 7/1 Bet365)

The Lincoln form is on offer here and I thought his run in that race was a decent step forward from his all weather runs, but there's a possibility that the result could have flattered him due to the run of the race.

He did finish his race down the middle of the track that day though, farthest away from the main protagonists, so I am inclined to think it was a very good step forward, contrary to the pace collapse previously mentioned.

He's been dropped 2lb for that, which is more than fair considering it was a probably career best. The ground should be drier come the off too, which will play to his advantage, given his only win on turf has been on rattling ground.

First time cheekpieces are applied here, which was a bit of a strange one for me as I couldn't see a reason to apply them, but I'm happy to trust Varian here. He's closely tied with Empirestateofmind who was a place behind him in the Lincoln but the selection is markedly better off at the weights here. I'd be happy to take on the favourite here who won't want this ground being by Exceed and Excel, he should need it much quicker.

17:20 - Al Barez (2/1 General)

He's clearly been a troubled horse during the early stages of his career, missing large parts of it including almost a year off since his last run, but when he does make the track, he's a very capable horse.

He's won 3 of his 4 starts and only beaten by a horse who is close to being rated 100. So there should be plenty of juice in a mark of 87. He's another who likes to go forward which should play into course conditions.

It's interesting he remains a colt, given the issues he's had, he must still show a fair level of ability and this looks quite a poor renewal of the race. He's the only runner which still has significant potential and he's got a plum draw in 9, right on the far rail.

Wednesday - 

13:50 - Bussento EW 4 places (16/1 General)

Those familiar with my twitter and read my horses to follow for 2023 will be familiar with my feelings on this horse, I think the world of him and I certainly thing he's got room for movement in a mark of 84.

Had some incredible 2YO form getting in around a couple of 100+ horse and several 90+ horses. He's had a comeback run on the AW over the extended mile and I think ran to his rating, just the front two could very good horses. The fact he's been given 2lb back just enhances my thoughts here and he's definitely overpriced.

Only concern here is the form of the stable, she's yet to fire a winner since the turf season officially begun. They've just looked short of a run in the finish, hence the EW selection.

14:25 - Aleezdancer EW 4 places - (5/1 Hills, Bet365)

Aleezdancer I’m sure will be on a lot of people radars after his impressive display on seasonal debut at Doncaster over the Lincoln weekend. 

Albeit we did see quite of lot of front runner bias on horrid ground that weekend, I think the Kevin Ryan team have found a great race to continue the horses good form. The 2nd that day, Blind Beggar can be forgiven for being drawn stand side in his recent run at Redcar, a place I’m sure punters are aware of the far side bias. 

The race Wednesday looks a very modest contest, with many of these either needed the run or having bigger handicap targets going into the season. Aleezdancer can take this race again, and is a proverbial EW to nothing here given the front running bias and fine record with abit of cut in ground.

17:20 - Like A Tiger - EW - SP

A horse I was taken with on his debut at Newmarket toward the latter end of the turf season and one I kept my eye on since. Getting the extra distance that he will on Wednesday should only be a positive being by Farhh.

He was much fancied on debut at Newmarket last year and ran a terrific race that day, giving the assumption that he goes well fresh and should be ready for Wednesday. Ferguson's horses are running incredibly well currently, with the stable posting a 73% RTF.

A mark of 83 underestimates his ability massive for me and he looks much better handicapped than others who have won more reputable maidens. Those likely to be forward in the market are also the ones likely to have bigger targets in the offing, so with that in mind I'm happy to play here. His prominent racing style should leave him in prime position to put himself in the race to best effect.