The Neighsayers - Horses To Follow 2023

The Neighsayers Horses To Follow 2023

Firstly, thanks to those of you who tuned in to our first ever twitter spaces on Thursday night, we had plenty of interaction and throughout had 39 people listen live, which is more than we could've thought for our first attempt. Since then, over 700 of you have listened back which is insane. We hope the northern accent's weren't too off putting and we can continue improving our spaces.

This will be a brief summary of the horses we chose as our ones to follow for this turf campaign along with a few notes on why, and where we might expect to see them.

The Horses

Ararat - 77 (Lewis)

David Simcock

Mr Mohammed Jaber

Kodiac x Recife

A horse that caught the eye on debut at Yarmouth, which is a track that normally produces some hot maiden's and this one was no different. Won by the Qatar Racing owned Zoology who won with relative ease before being outclassed in the Group 1 Middle Park. ARARAT finished in front of subsequent listed winner proverb, who disappointed in France on the 22nd March. Save The World, owned by The Gredley's, also won a Nottingham novice event which is often a positive. Other horses in behind have ran decent races since too, against some horses close to being rated 90, so there's some substance to the form.

He went to Redcar on his 2nd start and was sent off 15/8 fav, so there was some market expectation to live up too, but he couldn't. He finished down the field that day, but there was excuses. He was drawn on the wrong part of the track and I'm not sure he wanted the step up to 7 furlongs immediately, neither.

His 2nd place at Wolves was a return to form, beaten by a short priced fav who won comfortably who's been given a handicap mark of 83. He finished just short of 3 lengths in front of a subsequent winner though, given a mark of 80 also. So he's in and around the right horses, but seems to have been given a lenient mark.

He showed a willing attitude that day, was a tad keen and he had a stiff head carriage, so if he can iron those quirks out he can make light work of a mark of 77. He's since been gelded over the winter too, which should bring further improvement. 

Espionage - 112 (Swanny)

A P O'brien

Michael Tabor

Galileo x Even Song

A horse we're keen to be on the right side of over middle distance trips this year. By Even song who was rated 110 in her peak. She's not very well known as a dam, with only 2 other progeny to hit the racecourse, which are full brother and sister to ESPIONAGE, however they have never gotten close to being as good as ESPIONAGE.  The dam won the Ribblesdale back in 2016 at Royal Ascot.  

Long term the Leger at Doncaster would be in our sights for this colt, but in the mean time he does have entries for both the English and Irish Derbies. He was just touched off in France by Coolmore owned Proud & Regal in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud. Another in the pecking order at Ballydoyle for some of the classics on either side of the Irish sea.

Tony Montana - Unrated (Lewis)

John & Thady Gosden

Amo Racing LTD

Kingman x Mischief Making

We found it hard to gauge how far this could go, in terms of classic races. he does have a Derby entry and on the dam side he's bred for the trip. The dam is by Lemon Drop Kid, a US Sire who is a multiple Group 1 & 2 winner between a mile and mile and a quarter. His sire index according to the Racing Post is 10.6 furlongs, which is shy of the derby trip, but the dam was an out and out stayer, mix that with the speed and class of Kingman there's every chance he does.

He's a once raced colt, making his debut at Salisbury late September, over the mile. He finished behind Bluestocking, who we are keen on for the Oaks, how she won given what luck she had in the run was very taking, but as was TONY MONTANA. He was drawn out on the wing that day, meaning he had to race away from the rail, which is often the place to be at Salisbury but that meant he had the freedom to show the qualities he possesses, without interference. He travelled like a good thing and kept on finding all the way until the line, showing a good attitude but the thing that impressed me the most was how balanced he was, which gives me every hope he can get the Derby trip and cope with all the undulations that Epsom Downs has.

Lakota Blue - 85 (Swanny)

Nigel Tinkler

Mr & Mrs I H Bendelow

Sioux Nation x Thiel

This one we feel is a bit left field, irrespective of the rating. He was 2nd at 100/1 on his 2nd start at Haydock but was massively outclassed in the Coventry but won 2 decent maidens before being outclassed again in the Gimcrack. The afore mentioned 2nd at 100/1 turned out to be decent form as it goes, no horse from that maiden is rated lower than 74 and there's several in the 80's and close to 90, so with normal progression he could turn into a 90+ horse.

Current mark of 85 which we think is lenient and can see them having a bit of fun with LAKOTA BLUE in the 3yo handicaps this year, should be able to get on the scoresheet again. He could be anything once he goes handicapping and finding a 0-85 at one of the northern tracks, off top weight seems the obvious place to start.

After winning that like we think he can, we could see him step into open company at one of the festivals this summer and picking up a good pot. He's still a full horse, so they could even opt to geld him to eek out any further improvement he may have in reserve.

All The Time - 95 (Lewis)

Simon & Ed Crisford

The Royal Ascot Racing Club

Kodiac x Mistime

This filly was an early enough type, winning her debut on the 1st June and looked all speed. She beat the group 2 Lowther winner, Swingalong by 5L. She raced prominently that day, which I think is the key to her. If she can pop out and make all, she can take some stopping. She was on the front end at Chester, for her 2nd win, this time in a conditions race.

She was highly tried as a 2 year old, running at Group 2, Group 3 and twice at Listed level, where her best performance come in the Dickie Poole Fillies Listed stakes at Salisbury. She was slowly away which put her on the back foot straight away then on the run in she hung all the way across the track and finishing alone, but with a wet sail, running on to finish a neck 2nd, to a horse that finished 5th in the Cheveley Park Group 1 at Newmarket.

I think they'll try to gain as much black type as they can with ALL THE TIME this year, but off a rating of 95, her options are open in terms of handicapping too. Being owned by the Royal Ascot Racing Club, there's every chance that's where we see her again.

Burglar - Unrated (Swanny)

John & Thady Gosden

A E Oppenheimer

Cracksman x Hidden Hope

Won on debut impressively once the penny dropped. Very green and hung off a true line when turning for home before getting the knack of racing and bolted home by 4L. BURGLAR does hold a Derby entry however may not be that level but is certain to improve and no doubt will be winning black type before too long. 

Gosden's can take a race or too to hit the ground, so I don't think we can rely on the Gosden's to get one ready even being fit from his debut. but the way he went away was impressive and I expect him to be in the black type races this season. 

Banderas - Unrated (Quinny)

Michael Bell

OTI Racing, Ballylinch Stud and Partner 

Lope De Vega x Glamorous Approach 

Big strapping type, who outran his rather unfancied odds of 22/1 on sole start, only beaten 5L in what looks a very good maiden race. He massively caught the eye, coming from the back of the field travelling ominously well in the hands of Daniel Tudhope. He was hard on the bridle, when getting no run, tightened up badly on 3 occasions at a time where the race was just developing. Consequently, he lost his pitch and wasn’t knocked about by Tudhope, finishing a very good 5^th. The 2^nd that day has gone on to win his maiden, suggesting the form is solid enough to follow into the 2023 season.

 

Beautifully bred type being a Lope De Vega out of a listed winning mare. The dam only came into her own at 3yo onwards, along with his full brother who also progressed significantly last year from 2-3yo. They have taken their time with BANDERAS, suggesting connections feel he is a similar type to progress with age.

 

I could see him easily winning a maiden over 1m2f NTO on either AW or Turf, with the turf option being more appealing, as he will need to gain experience on the surface so he can tackle bigger targets later in the season. He was pulled out of a Newbury maiden last year due to the soft ground, so I would imagine they will keep him away from really testing ground. I could see him being targeted in top 3yo races over 1m4f+, maybe testing his credentials in a Derby trial after his maiden win. Really looking forward to seeing what this one can do. Top class potential.

Concorde - 57 (Quinny)

George Boughey 

Mrs Susan Roy

Sixties Icon x Silica Chiave

CONCORDE looks a horse to keep on the right side of moving into the 3yo turf season, after being gifted an opening mark of 57 after 3 quick runs in novice events. Showed enough ability on debut and 2^nd run to suggest he could be a likely improver with time and experience. I liked the rides he got in all his races to date, nice and educational giving CONCORDE the best chance of maintaining a good aptitude to racing moving into his 3yo career. Looked like a lovely mover and travelled with enough zest (mainly on debut) to suggest he has a decent level of ability.

 

Plenty of stamina being out of Sixties Icon, giving CONCORDE plenty of options regarding trip. Gelded shortly after his 3^rd run, indicating that was the plan at the outset. Trainer George Boughey has shown incredible talent on placing his unexposed horses to run up sequences, and this could be another one to add to his tremendous record in handicaps.

Owner Mrs Susan Roy teamed up with George Boughey last year with Simply Sondheim, who rattled off 6 consecutive handicap wins once being gelded, could this be another similar type? Mrs Roy doesn’t tend to suffer “Poor” horses, so this is testament to CONCORDE that she is willing to persevere into handicap company. Unraced on turf, could easily bring out improvement. I’d be very disappointed if this one isn’t significantly well handicapped.

Gambe Veloci - 73 (Quinny)

Joseph Patrick O'Brien

 

Annus Mirabilis Syndicate 

Caravaggio x Neutral 

Talented lightly raced 4yo who hasn’t shown his full hand yet. Beaten on debut by an Aidan O’Brian hot pot, who had much better track position on the day after GAMBE VELOCI missed the break significantly, having to make up miles of ground before making his challenge, showing enough that day to suggest he has a high level of ability. 2^nd run similar story, missed the break, jockey had to take his medicine and come with a late rattle on what was tough deep ground. He made up over 10 lengths on the field down the outside but failed to run down the winner who again had better track position making all.

If you thought his luck couldn’t get worse, it did. 3^rd run, was dropped down to 7f round Listowel, a pace favouring tight track what wouldn’t suit a horse like him. Broke okay, didn’t forfeit any ground, slightly tapped for tow 3f out but got no run on the rails, lost all chance of winning and was allowed to come home under hands and heels. Subsequently, he has been given an official mark of 73, a mark what I believe is more than exploitable in 1m+ handicaps. I’d expect him to be 90+ come the end of the year.

Mascapone - 91 (Elliot)

David Simcock

Australian Bloodstock Stable

Massaat x Capelita

My first horse to follow is the David Simcock trained MASCAPONE, he was picked up by Simcock after running a promising 4th in the Brocklesby only 5&1/4 lengths behind subsequent G2 winner Persian Force over a trip that will prove to be on the sharp side for him.

He then went and won an ordinary enough Chelmsford maiden before missing the break when stepped up in class at Ascot next time behind Naval Power.

But it’s the next run that interests me most, sent off 33s for a good nursery at HQ on handicap debut. He was again slowly away, and raced in last before picking up 2 only to be denied a run up the rail and then flew home for 4th.

The handicapper since raised him 2lbs to 91, I think there’s definitely room for improvement off this mark, especially stepping up to a mile and further. An early season target could potentially be the Esher cup at Sandown.

Military Order - Unrated (Elliot)

Charlie Appleby

Godolphin

Frankel x Anna Salai

The second horse is probably a bit more obvious being a full brother to the Derby and King George winning Adayar. MILITARY ORDER found 7f a bit too sharp on debut before getting on top late on over a mile on his second start.

That maiden was won in 2020 by Hurricane Lane and I’d see him as a similar type, He’s going to need at least 1m4f this season and could be a lively outsider to emulate his brother in the Derby, there are worse Ante-post prices around than the current 33/1 on offer with 365 and Hills. His potential starting point could be the Sandown classic trial over 1m2f at the end of April.

Courage Mon Ami - 98 (Elliot)

John & Thady Gosden

A E Oppenheimer

Frankel x Crimson Ribbon

Trained by John & Thady Gosden ,this son of Frankel was a massive eyecatcher when winning on debut at Kempton in September. Despite giving his rivals at least 5 lengths at the start and looking well beaten turning for home he soon got the hang of things and powered up the straight to win by 5 lengths.

COURAGE MON AMI was then impressive again in winning how he liked in another novice at Newcastle at 2/11, the form of the run since received a boost with the 6 behind length second coming out to win next time out.

He has since been gelded over the winter and given a mark of 98. I really believe this to be a group horse so he could be absolutely lobbed in off 98 if the Gosden’s want to go down the handicap route. I’m not sure on any potential target but this will be a serious bet for me if he rocks up in a handicap and would love to see Benoit booked.

Desert Hero - 94 (Luke)

William Haggas

HM The King & HM The Queen Consort

Sea The Stars x Desert Breeze

DESERT HERO took the eye of myself and many others when making a hugely impressive debut at Haydock on the 30th June last year. Starting his 2 year old campaign over 7 furlongs, he settled towards the rear of the field before making a steady improvement approaching 3f from home. It was reaching the 2 marker where Marquand got more serious on this of this son of Sea The Stars however it was his final furlong that was most impressive, powering away from his rivals with limited use of the whip to win by a very commanding 2 and 3/4 Lengths. He was then pitched in as favourite for the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown again over 7f. It wasn’t to be for him on this occasion but he shaped better than the bare result being hampered in his run before running on again towards the finish, beaten 5 1/4 lengths by the eventual winner and future Autumn Stakes winner and Breeders Cup runner up Silver Knott. His season finished when winning as entitled at Redcar at prohibitive odds of 1/7, Fallon on this occasion as expected not having to get serious on the colt who landed the spoils with limited fuss despite still showing signs of greenness.

Out of an unraced sister to 1m 4f/1m 6f Grade 2 winner Dartmouth and by Guineas and Derby hero Sea the Stars, the horse on pedigree is likely to relish middle distance trips this season and could even be one for the Leger further down the line. His Dams full brother, the previously mentioned Dartmouth, didn’t show his best form till reaching 4 and I hold a similar opinion with this colt that his ability to show such a strong level of form at 2 was just a bonus on what’s to come this year and beyond.

An opening mark of 94 will turn out to be an absolute insult to this horse’s ability in my opinion and they could make a mockery of the handicapper if they were to go down this route. I have high hopes for this fella and don’t think races at the highest level will be beyond his grasp as the season progresses. As of yet I have not seen any plans for the current campaign but I couldn’t put anyone off a speculative bet at 40/1 for the Derby.

Carzola - 77 (Luke)

Ralph Beckett

Ballyinch Stud

Lope De Vega x Janicellaine

Another Ralph Beckett trained inmate makes my horses to follow for the 2023 season, this one however with a vastly different profile. Unraced at 2, CARZOLA started her 3 year old career in October 2022 with a 4th placed finish at Kempton over a quite clearly inadequate trip. On this occasion she was under pressure from over 3f out finding herself greatly outpaced before plugging on to be relatively well beaten by 10 1/4 lengths. This however would be a more promising start to life on the racecourse than it may originally seem, with the trip clearly being too short despite her breeding (Daughter of Lope De Vega and full sister to an American 8.5f winner).

Upped to 1m 4f on her next start, she built on this debut with another promising 4th placed finish, this time being beaten only 3 and a half lengths at the finish. Following this run she was handed a lowly mark of 67 for her handicap debut at Lingfield. Again stepped up further in trip, this time to 1m 5f and with first time blinkers applied, she put in her best run to date. Held up at the rear of the field, she stuck on well for pressure just failing to get to the eventual winner going down by half a length. This run again demonstrated her staying power and after being raised 2lb by the handicapper she returned to Lingfield a month later, shedding her maiden tag in emphatic fashion on her first try over 2 miles. You could hardly be more impressed with the manner or this victory, charging clear under hands and heals ride from Rossa Ryan being eased closed home to win by 3 and 1/2 lengths.

Despite being raised 8lbs for this victory the nature of the performance was so taking that it’s impossible to believe that this mark will be the ceiling of her ability. With valuable staying prizes now on the agenda, I’d be disappointed if she was unable to make her mark over marathon trips this season, starting at Kempton on Saturday in the £25,000 Queens Prize Handicap. With this being a qualifier for the London Stayers’ Series her ultimate aim may be the £80,000 final which takes place on the 7th December. Another intriguing angle is that she as of yet hasn’t had the opportunity to run on Turf and I will be interested to see how she may handle this switch to a different surface if this is a route they choose to go down in the future.

Artistic Star - Unrated (Luke)

Ralph Beckett

J C Smith

Galileo x Nechita

Ralph Beckett’s ARTISTIC STAR only made his debut in a back end maiden at Nottingham in October but what a debut it was. Relatively unfound in the market at 16/1 he raced prominently before powerfully kicking clear of his rivals with a furlong of the mile maiden to go, winning by an eventual margin of 1 and a 1/4 lengths. Although the form has not been fully advertised to date, the 3rd horse went on to shed his maiden tag at the next attempt, adding some substance to this impressive victory. What is most impressive however is the possible improvement to come from this colt running in the famous colours of Clive Smith.

Despite the speed on his Dam’s side, he is a son of the late Galileo and a full brother to winners over distances up to 12.5f, meaning he is sure to thrive over middle distance trips this year. Being a son of the famous super sire almost entitles him to be better at 3 than 2 so the fact he was able to win in such commanding fashion on his first racecourse outing is a hugely encouraging sign.

In recent years these aforementioned back end maidens at Nottingham have thrown up Derby Winners Adayar and Desert Crown as well as Leger winner Eldar Eldarov, showing that horses that win such races should be taken very seriously going forward. Although he currently doesn’t hold a Derby entry, it would come as no surprise to me if he was good enough to take his place in the Epsom showpiece providing he can progress as expected when his 2023 campaign gets underway.