The Neighsayers - The Lincoln 2023 Ante-post Preview

 

The Lincoln Handicap 2023 Ante Post Preview  

By Lewis Dale (Racing_Lew) & Luke Quinn (LukeQuinn01)

With the flat season fast approaching, there is no better place to start than looking at The Lincoln Handicap, the inaugural race in the flat racing calendar, where punters can open up the form book to try and solve the season's first heritage handicap.

Notable stats and trends

49% of winners since 1965 were aged 4yo

8 of last 11 Winners were running FTO after 150+ days off the track 

18 of last 19 winners carried 9st 4lb or less 

14 of last 19 winners came from stall 9 or higher 

11 of last 19 SP favs were unplaced

Apprentice jockeys are 2/93 , 5lb or 7lb claimers are 1/51

Honourable Mentions

Jimi Hendrix (IRE)

4yo ch g                                                           

Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Price -  16/1

Nice handicap type who I feel we haven't seen the best of yet. Ran a staggering race in the 2022 Britannia Handicap, where he made the bulk of the running on what isn't a pace favouring straight mile, remarkably finishing 3rd beaten only 1½ Lengths. He went on to win his next start, but failed to continue his upwards trajectory. Subsequently, this has led to him being gelded, allowing potential room for further improvement. He narrowly misses out of the preview selections due to his front running style of racing, as i believe the straight mile at Doncaster wouldn't be best suited to this style of running. One to keep onside at a more conventional track

Potential future target -  

1. Golden Mile Handicap 1m Goodwood August 2023 (hope for a better draw than last year)

Isla Kai (IRE)

5yo b g 

Trainer: Nigel Tinkler 

Price - 40/1

Solid older handicapper, who ran up a nice sequence in his 3yo on testing ground. Winless last year but 8/9 races were run on GF or G ground, which will not have been in his favour. Ran a screamer in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 6th after leading for a long way, a performance that could be marked up significantly down to unfavourable track bias and ground. His only run on GS or worse came at York, where he ran with credit finishing 3rd of 20, a good run suggesting that he is ready to strike off a current mark of 92. Flat galloping tracks look to be his bag, with all his best runs coming at Ascot, Doncaster and York. Narrowly misses out on the ante-post preview due to the uncertainty of the ground, which I feel is crucial for his chances. Could easily see him picking up a big field handicap at the aforementioned tracks, providing the ground is suitable. Holds Irish Lincoln entry.

Potential future targets 

1. Hambleton Court Handicap 1m York May 2023

2. Clipper Logistics Heritage Handicap 1m York August 2023

Main Preview 

Great Max (IRE)

4yo b g

Trainer: Alice Haynes

Price - 25/1

Talented horse who hasn't put his best foot forward since his 2yo days with Michael Bell, mainly down to terrible placement during his 3yo campaign. The recurring owner habit of moving his horses could potentially work the oracle for this one. Now with Alice Haynes, I believe she could easily get the best out of this horse with better placement, starting with the Lincoln to be a nice early season target. 

Interestingly, Alice Haynes has a 50% strike rate first time out after being gelded in 2022/23, increasing GREAT MAX's chances in The Lincoln if going there with a fresh horse. Retains all ability in my book judged by his Chester run last year, travelling well for most of the race but not getting the gaps on a very tight track. 4yo’s have a very good record in the Lincoln, but hopes are pinned on the gelding op and his new outfit getting him cherry ripe for a FTO attempt at a big pot. Speculative.

Wanees (GB)

4yo b g

Trainer: Charlie Hills 

Price - 14/1

Interesting type, who notched up 2 wins in his 2022 turf campaign, making a mockery of his opening mark of 84 and off 93 late season after a break and gelding operation. His 2 runs in between were not devoid of promise also, but he often scuppered his chances after running freely. The gelding op looked to do the trick, when landing a competitive Haydock handicap in cosy style. Now rated 96, I feel he still has room for improvement with him being so lightly raced.

He must show potential group ability at home, as he dodged the Shadwell dispersal sale when only rated 84, indicating that there may be more progression under the bonnet. You could have backed all of Charlie Hills’ runners at Doncaster, making +£21 to a £1 level stake, indicating he likes to target races at the South Yorkshire track. Interesting runner for a yard who can target big pots. Likely chance.

Tacarib Bay

4yo b c

Trainer: Richard Hannon

Price: 33/1

This horse does fit the bill for me in regards to being a Lincoln type. He’s still a very lightly raced 4 year old with obvious claims of improvement. He kept on improving with racing throughout the year and it culminated with him finishing 3rd in the Balmoral on champions day, his last start on turf for the season. He raced over 7f and a mile last year but his final 4 starts suggested he belonged at the mile and his 7f days were over. I have no concerns over the ground with him, he’s ran good races from soft to good-to-firm, so whatever the ground turns up come 1st of April, he’ll be ready to run.

I don’t think he has any chance at stud, but given some of the new sire’s this season you never know, but that’s a conversation for another day. I hope they geld this horse in the interim before now and race day, to help eek out any further improvement he might have in reserve.

Richard Hannon is no stranger to a winner at Doncaster and the South Yorkshire venue was his most profitable course to £1 level stakes (£31.54) and he also boasted a nearly 21% strike rate.

He ran a belting race in the Lincoln trial at Wolves, he had a horrid draw, was held up to get a run along the rail, before finishing all way over on the stands rail after being denied a run and staying on for 5th, a brilliant prep run and the handicapper chose to leave him alone for that, so he’s still rated 105.

Saga

4yo b g

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden 

Price - 33/1

This is a horse that’s somehow still only a one time winner, he disappointed in handicaps last year, but rated high enough then also. He’s eased considerably in the weights since then and is now rated 102. He looked to have all the potential in the world as a 2 year old, following home Modern Games and the late Coroebus on his first two starts before shedding his maiden in comfortable fashion. He then again bumped into another one, Maljoom in his first start as a 3 year old.

His first run over a mile in a handicap, produced his best performance of the season. He finished 2nd in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, in what would’ve been a poignant moment for The Queen, but he just ran out of runway. The handicapper all but ended his season there, hiking him 8lb up the weights and he struggled to cope with that. He went to York over the mile but was drawn 18/19, so his race was over there before running again at York but over a mile and a quarter, but I can’t see that being tried again soon.

I can’t see Frankie Dettori coming back from the U.S. to ride in the Lincoln, so I think the ride will be between Ryan Moore, who is yet to win a Lincoln. Benoit De La Layette would be my preferred rider of Saga in the race. Although apprentices normally have a poor record in the race, as mentioned in the stats at the beginning of the preview, Benoit is one of the two apprentices to ever win the race and is the only 5/7lb claimer and we know he’s destined for stardom.

Recommended Points system - Prices correct 18:00 20/03/2023

Great Max 1pt EW 25/1 (Bet365,Unibet,William Hill)

Wanees 2pt Win 14/1 (Most firms)

Tacarib Bay 1pt EW 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Saga 1pt EW 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

(Ante Post Rules apply)

Best of luck!