Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle - 14/03/2023
There
is still doubt whether the rain which has fallen around Cheltenham over the
last few days has really gotten into the ground, another wet night tonight will
definitely help the chances of last years Champion Bumper winner Facile Vega
(9/4 F) and his exaggerated knee action. However, I have been keen to take him
on all year and although there has been a few excuses banded around for the DRF
blowout it was just proof in my opinion that the reputation exceeds the
ability. You’d have to be a more forgiving man than myself to be wading in at
9/4.
Despite
my unwillingness to believe the excuses given for the aforementioned Facile
Vega, I still think that race set was up for Il Etait Temps (9/2) and he would
need to improve further again to be taking out this contest. That is obviously
a possibility but he was readily put in place by the favourite on his
penultimate start and a horse with his profile (beaten on 4 starts a juvenile
previously) wouldn’t be for me, even if he has learnt to race a lot more
efficiently than in his younger days.
I’d
be disappointed if Inthepocket (17/2) was good enough against some classier
animals, beaten almost 10 lengths by Il Etait Temps previously, while Tahmuras
(9/1) won what I believe was a poor renewal of the Tolworth despite the form
stacking up well.
High
Definition (16/1) was a one time Derby favourite and Group 1 runner up on the
flat. A win on hurdles debut was tainted somewhat by a sketchy round of
jumping, a problem that resurfaced when unseating last time out (in the race
won by Il Etait Temps).
Diverge
(14/1) is the lurker and has the stereotypical tag of ‘could be anything’ after
improving on his debut 6th behind High Definition to win by half the track on
his next start however I would have preferred to have seen it on the track
again myself. Olly Murphy has Strong Leader (33/1) and Chasing Fire (22/1) who
both have both been impressive but in company that’s not in the same universe
as what they’ll face on Tuesday, while Rare Edition (22/1) blotted his copybook
when beaten in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon on his previous start.
Gordon
Elliot’s sole representative Doctor Bravo (16/1) has been well touted on the
preview circuit after a solid run against 2 classy older horses in the Red
Mills. This is solid form and I couldn’t put anyone off an Each Way tickle in
an open race.
My
selection for the Festival Curtain raiser however is trained by a man who’s
never saddled a Cheltenham Winner. Marine Nationale (9/2) represents former
hedge fund manager and Cheltenham Festival winning owner Barry Connell who’s
looking to cause an almighty upset over the superstars of the training world in
just his 3rd season in the ranks. Although the rain would stifle my enthusiasm
slightly for such a quick horse, he has bags of untapped potential. Put away
since his head victory in the Grade 1 Royal Bond in December, he was much more
value for the winning distance on the day and with 3 separate graded winners in
behind, including Champ Kiely who took out the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas on his
next start, the form has certainly been well advertised (despite Irish Point
flopping before victory at the weekend). The way he travels through his races
is a sight to behold and with push button acceleration to boot he will be
carrying my money come 1:30 on Tuesday afternoon.
* Prices correct on William Hill 20:00 13/03/2023
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